US Housing Market Focus How tight are mortgage lending standards? Smaller down payments and rising debt-to-income ratios might be an indication that mortgage lending standards are once again being relaxed to dangerous levels. But the Ability to Repay rule is... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Despite the subdued 0.2% m/m gain in headline retail sales in October, which was still above the consensus forecast of no change, the underlying details suggest that real consumption growth has picked... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) A drop back in energy prices last month pushed headline down to 2.0% from 2.2%, but there are clear signs that underlying price pressures are on the rise again. Core inflation increased for the first... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Rise in US coal output not down to Trump The revival in the US coal industry is due to a surge in demand from China and solid domestic consumption, rather than any changes to legislation. However, rising supply, slowing economic growth in... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the Fed prepared for the challenges ahead? The nomination of the relatively inexperienced Jerome Powell as Fed Chair comes at arguably a bad time as the FOMC has fewer professional economists and less experience than it has had in decades. The... 14th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Annual house price growth has peaked The rise in annual house price growth to a three-year high of 6.1% in August raises the prospect that our forecast for a 6% gain by the end of the year will prove too conservative. But, with credit... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Will Japan benefit from the TPP minus the US? Even after the withdrawal of the US, the TPP remains an ambitious free trade agreement that will lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for Japanese firms in a number of important trading partners and... 13th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Nov.) Despite the fall in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to 97.8 in November, from 100.7, it remains close to its highest level in many years, suggesting that real consumption is set... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Recovery in business investment still has further to run The rapid pace of business investment growth so far this year may be unsustainable, but there is little reason to fear anything worse than a modest slowdown any time soon. The near-term prospects for... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What have we learnt since the election? In the year since Donald Trump won the Presidential election, events outside of the US have had a bigger impact on the economy, but we doubt that will remain the case. We expect a deficit-financed... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A sharp rise in US demand for products is in line with other indicators showing a pick-up in consumption recently. But record levels of oil production will delay the wider oil market rebalancing. 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Higher mortgage rates and lack of stock hits activity Mortgage interest rate are rising gradually which, coupled with a lack of inventory, has meant mortgage applications for home purchase resumed their downward trend in October. That implies home sales... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump failing to deliver on protectionist threat One year on from his election, Donald Trump is struggling to live up to the promises he made on the campaign trail to get tough with countries that run big bilateral trade surpluses with the US... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) Annual house price inflation came in at 7% in September according to CoreLogic, as tight market conditions put further upward pressure on home values. However, higher mortgage interest rates, falling... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the poor drowning in debt as the rich get richer? The contrarian wisdom is that even if the aggregate debt-to-income ratio has fallen sharply in recent years, it masks financial stresses for those on low incomes, since most of the gains in income... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The smaller than expected 261,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in October, which was below the 310,000 consensus forecast, isn’t as disappointing as it looks when the cumulative 90,000 upward... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
