US Economics Update Banks easing credit conditions amid weak demand The second-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey revealed that, a year after the regional banking crisis, only a modest net share of banks are still tightening lending standards. 6th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fundamentals point to slower wage growth Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference this week that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. We still... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Employment Report provides some cheer for markets Today’s favourable reaction in the US stock market to April's softer-than-expected Employment Report has coincided with renewed hopes of interest rate cuts, judging by the initial plunge in the 2-year... 3rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM services index to 49.4 in April, from 51.4 in March, suggests that services spending could slow from the 4% annualised in the first quarter. The prices paid index rebounded but... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Apr.) April’s employment report was weaker across the board; with employment growth slowing back to the pace from last fall, the unemployment rate ticking up to 3.9% and average hourly earnings growth... 3rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Powell’s cautious message points to lower UST yields This week’s FOMC meeting supports our view that bond yields will fall back a bit further this year. 2nd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi-US relations, NEOM financing, Morocco and the IMF Reports suggest that Saudi Arabia and the US are close to reaching a new security pact which, if confirmed, could swing the Kingdom back towards the US's orbit. Meanwhile, Saudi’s flagship gigaproject... 2nd May 2024 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Update San Francisco the poster child for the donut effect With downtowns generally suffering most from the growth in remote work, the hardest-hit cities such as San Francisco are now seeing this impact other revenue streams too, not least tourism. While... 2nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The trade deficit narrowed slightly in March to $69.4bn, from $69.5bn, with exports down by 2.0% m/m and imports falling by 1.6%. The $5.1bn decline in goods exports included a $1.2bn drop in civilian... 2nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weighing up the relative prospects for cyclicals and defensives We envisage cyclical sectors generally continuing to outperform defensive ones in the S&P 500 through the end of 2025. That reflects our view about the economic outlook; our expectation that hype... 2nd May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time Fed Chair Jerome Powell argued in his post-FOMC press conference that, despite the stickiness of inflation in recent months, additional interest rate hikes were still “unlikely”. Moreover, while he... 1st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (May) The Fed admitted in the statement issued after today’s FOMC meeting that “in recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the… 2% inflation objective”. Otherwise, today’s statement... 1st May 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar's strength not a threat to US economy The dollar’s rise is attracting a lot of attention, but is nowhere near big enough yet to have any significant impact on US inflation, although it does appear to be weighing on exports. In real trade... 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the recent surge in Treasury yields We doubt the recent rise in US bond yields will continue much further, or significantly undermine the prospects of US equities. 1st May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Labour demand easing, wage growth more resilient The March JOLTS data showed clearer signs that labour market tightness is continuing to ease. Slower downward progress in wage growth could be concerning, but for now it still appears to be moving... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr. 2024) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index back below the theoretical 50.0 no-change level in April suggests that the nascent recovery in the manufacturing sector may already have gone into reverse... 1st May 2024 · 2 mins read
