US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Nov.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a new 17-year high provides further reason to think that real consumption growth is set to accelerate. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Sep.) The strong monthly rise in house prices reported by Case-Shiller for September is not a sign that house price growth is accelerating. Indeed, weakening buyer sentiment and house price expectations... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Gradually scaling back support despite low inflation Despite the fact that core inflation in advanced economies has generally remained very low, policymakers are committed to reducing policy support and/or raising interest rates next year. Fed officials... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) Following a large jump in September, new home sales surprised on the upside again in October with a gain of 6.2% m/m pushing sales to a 10-year high. But that boost to activity has weighed on... 27th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Higher exports and the continued recovery in demand from refineries helped to drawdown stocks of crude oil last week. While we think that stocks will continue to fall, for the next few weeks at least... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Does the flatter yield curve signal a recession? The flattening of the yield curve over the past couple of months is not a signal that a recession is on the way. Instead, it is mainly due to a drop back in the term premium on longer-dated bonds... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The fall in durable goods orders in October was entirely driven by a drop back in the volatile transport category. The underlying details suggest that business equipment investment continues to expand... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did the hurricanes lead to a surge in delinquencies? The first report on mortgage delinquencies since the September hurricanes shows a large rise in payment problems in both Texas and Florida. But we suspect that primarily represents borrowers who could... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) Existing home sales rose for the second month in a row in October, with a larger than expected gain of 2.0% m/m. But that rise has only worsened what was an already very low level of inventory. With... 21st November 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflationary pressures starting to re-emerge Core CPI inflation was subdued at 1.8% in October, but there were signs that the transitory factors weighing on core inflation earlier this year are now starting to fade. Medical care price inflation... 20th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is another household debt problem brewing? Households’ balance sheets are in good shape; debt as a share of income has remained stable, net wealth is at a record high, and debt service costs are below their long-run average. However, the... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) After falling for three months in a row, the 13.7% m/m rise in housing starts in October is welcome news. Admittedly, much of the rise was driven by the very volatile multifamily sector, which is... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus One year on: the impact of Trump on commodities markets The prices of many industrial commodities rallied in the wake of Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election, buoyed by hopes of substantial fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending. Market... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market in for a taxing time? It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the... 16th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform: what happens next? The Republicans appear to be making reasonable progress on tax reform but, with several key challenges yet to be resolved, there is still a long way to go before a final bill is ready for President... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Learning the lessons from Fed-related sell-offs Periodic bouts of investor concern over Fed policy tightening appear to be having less and less effect on financial markets in EMs. That being said, the one consistent theme that emerges from our... 15th November 2017 · 1 min read
