US Economics Weekly How much further can the labour market tighten? The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its policy meeting next week and, against a backdrop of tightening labour market conditions and gradually rising wage inflation... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly bigger than expected 228,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November all but guarantees another 25bp interest rate hike by the Fed next week, particularly with the unemployment rate... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are forecasts for US oil output too optimistic? The recent rise in prices makes a large jump in US oil production next year relatively certain. However, rising costs, fewer efficiency gains and maturing fields will start to weigh on growth towards... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fiscal stimulus will prompt faster tightening in 2018 At this stage, a 25bp rate hike at next week’s FOMC meeting is all-but guaranteed. Of more interest will be whether the increased prospect of a near-term fiscal stimulus prompts officials to revise up... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large drop in crude stocks was eclipsed by an even bigger jump in gasoline inventories. Weak demand for fuel products and a rebound in imports would weigh on oil prices over the next few months. 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The 2.4% m/m increase in mortgage applications for home purchase in November more than reversed the previous month’s drop. But the bigger picture is that home purchase demand has made no sustained... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How will fiscal and monetary policy interact? The soon-to-be-finalised fiscal stimulus could prompt the Fed to tighten monetary policy slightly more aggressively next year, although the potential interactions between fiscal and monetary policies... 6th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The widening in the trade deficit in October was driven by a large fall in soybean exports, which appears unlikely to be reversed over the next month or two. Together with the continued strength of... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Annual house price growth on the CoreLogic measure reached 7.0% in October, marking four consecutive months of gains over 6%. But even as inventory levels have seen further falls, active housing... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in November, which mirrors the drop back in the regional Fed surveys and the alternative Markit PMI, still leaves it at an elevated level consistent... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Boom in apartment building helps children move out A boom in apartment construction has helped push the share of 18-24 year olds living with their parents to a six-year low. But, with no corresponding rise in the inventory of affordable homes for sale... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rebound in profit share unlikely to last Our forecast that the S&P 500 will do no better than trend sideways for the next year is based on our belief that, with the unemployment rate at a 17-year low, most of the gains in nominal GDP next... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep pressure on Fed We forecast a 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November, with the unemployment rate holding steady at a 17-year low of 4.1%. The latter will concern those Fed officials worried that diminishing... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large fall in crude stocks will have cheered OPEC before its meeting tomorrow. However, the reduction in inventories was largely due to temporary disruption to imports. What’s more, rising oil... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) The monetary aggregates reveal a divergence, with M2 growth slowing to a six-year low of 5.0% in October, while growth in our M3 measure accelerated to a two-and-a-half-year high of 6.1%. As short... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
