US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales enjoyed a strong rise in November, with the 5.6% m/m gain taking sales to their highest level in almost 11-years. But that rise has cut inventory levels even further, and it is... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fiscal stimulus will provide only temporary boost The Republicans' long-awaited tax reform bill, which looks set to be signed into law this week, represents the first major legislative victory for President Donald Trump and should provide a modest... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should other central banks follow the Fed? There are reasons why the US Federal Reserve should be further along the path to policy normalisation than other major central banks. But there are also reasons why they should not lag too far behind. 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Housing starts rose for the second month in a row in November, with a 3.3% m/m gain pushing them to their highest level since October 2016. Encouragingly, it was the single-family sector which drove... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rebound will force the Fed to tighten further The subdued November CPI figures and the news that the Fed left its inflation and interest rate projections unchanged triggered a mini-rally in the bond markets, but arguably investors should be... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Nov.) The softer 0.2% m/m gain in industrial production in November was little surprise following the upwardly-revised 1.2% m/m surge the previous month. In any case, with the disruption from the hurricanes... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Buying still better than renting in the long run Based on the current tax environment, our forecasts for house prices and rents show that buying a median-priced home is better than renting one for any holding period of six years or longer. By making... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rise in headline retail sales in November was a lot better than consensus expectations and, together with the upward revision to October’s gain, suggests that real consumption growth has... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply again last week. However, surging US production could potentially push the global oil market back into a surplus next year. What’s more, stocks of petroleum products are... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) Headline consumer prices increased by a robust 0.4% m/m in November, albeit mainly due to a 7.3% m/m surge in gasoline prices, with core consumer prices increasing by a more modest 0.1% m/m... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Recovery in home sales cuts inventory to record lows Home sales are showing signs of life, with both new and existing home sales rising for the second month in a row in October. However, the inventory of homes for sale has continued to decline, and that... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What does a flattening yield curve mean for gold? While a flattening US yield curve has, at times, been associated with a rising gold price, the relationship is far from perfect. Indeed, although we expect the curve to continue to flatten over the... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to stronger wage pressures next year Although small firms are increasingly optimistic about the economic outlook, the latest surveys suggest that business investment growth may soon start to slow. But with demand for labour as strong as... 12th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Inflation: The next 20 years Inflation has been unusually stable over the past decade at a relatively low level, but there is no guarantee that the status quo will be maintained in the long term. A slide into deflation or a... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus What does 2018 have in store for developed markets? We think that investors are still underestimating the extent to which the Fed will tighten policy next year. As a result, we forecast that the dollar and Treasury yields will rise in 2018. We don’t... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Dec.) Although the University of Michigan consumer confidence index declined in December, against consensus expectations of a small rise, the index remains at a high level by past standards and consistent... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
