US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys point to a pick-up in wage pressures in 2018 Small firms remain optimistic about the outlook, but tighter labour market conditions are becoming an increasing constraint on expansion. That points to a pick-up in wage pressures and continued... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Homes sales enjoy strong end to the year Home sales enjoyed a strong end to the year, with both new and existing sales now close to 11-year highs. But that boost to sales was not accompanied by any rise in mortgage applications for home... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Investment boom should continue in 2018 Business investment enjoyed a strong resurgence last year, particularly in the second half. Our estimates imply that business investment increased by 7.5% annualised in the fourth quarter, the biggest... 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) & Internat’l Trade (Nov.) The slightly disappointing 148,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December will not prevent the Fed from continuing to normalise interest rates, with the next hike probably coming in March. 5th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Persistent strength in demand from refineries and an increase in exports pushed US crude stocks lower last week. However, petroleum product stocks jumped as demand plummeted during the holiday season... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 59.7 in December, from 58.2, leaves it close to a 13-year high and at a level that historically has been consistent with GDP growth accelerating to more... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) Mortgage applications for home purchase were flat in December, and have made no upward progress for two years. While there have been signs of life in the home sales data in recent months, the absence... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Solid job gains will drive unemployment rate lower Our econometric model points to a 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, which would be well above the average monthly gain of 174,000 over the first 11 months of last year. Manufacturing... 3rd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House prices continued to rise steadily in November, in both monthly and annual terms. That seems consistent with the exceptionally low levels of inventory, as well as the continued strength of the... 2nd January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook 2018 will be as good as it gets It is hard to see how the US economy could have a bad year in 2018. GDP growth has been gaining momentum in 2017, the global economy is experiencing a strong synchronised upswing, borrowing costs... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods / Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The strong gains in real consumption and durable goods in November suggest that the economic expansion maintained its recent impressive vigour into the end of 2017. GDP growth looks to have been close... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 2018: How can it all go wrong? Our forecast that GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% next year is boringly in line with the consensus. Given the constellation of positive factors boosting economic growth, however, it’s hard to be... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing starts and home sales show signs of life Housing activity is finally showing some signs of life. New home sales and single-family housing starts have both reached 10-year highs, as builders have started to respond to very tight market... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell sharply again last week as refineries churned out more products and net imports dropped back. However, stocks of petroleum products are still rising meaning that some refineries... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy doing well ahead of stimulus After back to back quarters of 3% plus growth, the economy is on track to expand by close to 3% annualised in the final quarter of the year as well. Consumption growth is rebounding, with control... 20th December 2017 · 1 min read
