US Housing Market Update QM change won’t turbo-charge the mortgage market A proposed change to the Dodd-Frank Act will make it easier for small banks to originate mortgages that meet the Qualified Mortgage standard. In theory, that could lead to the return of mortgages... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A larger-than-expected draw in crude stocks last week is somewhat at odds with the rebound in production and fall in refinery runs. But what is clear is that gasoline stocks have continued to build on... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Will the Fed abandon inflation targeting? In the long run we suspect the Fed will move away from rules-based inflation targeting and shift to a more discretionary regime that focuses on financial stability as well as price stability and full... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Housing starts had a poor end to 2017. An 8.2% m/m drop in December meant starts finished the year 6% down compared to a year ago. The single-family sector drove the contraction in starts. But, at the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far are US Treasury yields likely to rise? After some brief respite, US Treasuries have come under fire again. Indeed, the 10-year yield has now rebounded to its highest level since last spring. We expect its rise to continue this year, as the... 18th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Higher oil prices not yet a serious problem As a net oil importer, the recent rise in oil prices should eventually be a negative for the US economy, but the near-term impact may actually be positive. Mining investment is set to rebound in the... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.9% m/m surge in industrial production in December was mostly due to a spike in utilities and stronger mining activity. Even so, underlying growth in manufacturing output remains strong and there... 17th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly What would happen if the US withdrew from NAFTA? The rise in trade tensions ahead of the sixth round of NAFTA trade talks scheduled to start later this month suggest that those talks could already be doomed. But we still think that there’s a good... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly 2018 maybe not a slam dunk after all The tightening of financial conditions this week provided a timely reminder of the downside risks to the economy this year and next. 2018 won’t necessarily be the slam dunk that many are assuming. The... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 0.4% m/m rise in headline retail sales in December was in line with expectations, but the continued strength of underlying sales suggests that real consumption growth accelerated sharply in the... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in December will reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike in March and supports our view that the Fed will ultimately increase interest rates by a more... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Revisiting Nafta (again) Concerns over the fate of Nafta have caused more wobbles in Mexican markets over the past day, but the economic implications are less straightforward than much of the commentary suggests. While any... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will apartment rental growth slow further in 2018? A multifamily construction boom during 2015 and 2016 has boosted apartment vacancy rates, and pushed rental growth to a six-year low. But developers are already scaling back multifamily construction... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will 2018 be a last hurrah for the US dollar? We expect the dollar to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies this year, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other major central banks generally... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Freezing winter weather heats up energy prices Adverse weather conditions in the US and China have boosted US gas consumption and highlighted China’s dependence on coal. But as the weather normalises, and domestic gas infrastructure improves, we... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks continued to fall last week but product stocks have increased sharply since November as demand from refineries has not been matched by higher product consumption. This may pressure... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
