US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Nov.) According to Case-Shiller, annual house price growth in November edged up slightly to 6.2%, but we doubt it will rise much further. Buyers are staying away due to the lack of homes for sale and, with... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Infrastructure spending still a tough sell in Congress Although stronger infrastructure investment could provide a significant boost to the economy, President Donald Trump’s plan to make private investors do most of the heavy lifting is unlikely to... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly It is all about the dollar Most commodity prices rose this week on the back of further broad-based falls in the US dollar. At the same time, the euro strengthened as ECB President Mario Draghi struck a fairly positive note at... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are we underestimating the impact of the tax cuts? The surge in the stock market and wave of firms announcing wage increases and bonuses since the Tax Cut and Jobs Act passed have fuelled optimism that tax cuts are reviving “animal spirits” and... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slight slowdown in GDP growth in the fourth quarter means the economy fell just short of the 3% growth targeted by the White House, but it was entirely due to a huge drag from inventories and net... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade thriving after Trump’s first year It will surely come as no surprise if President Donald Trump delivers another protectionist speech at Davos tomorrow. But his actions may continue to fall a long way short of his rhetoric. In any case... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) The 9.3% m/m drop in new home sales in December reversed some, but not all, of November’s surge and left sales up by 14% over 2017 as a whole. A strong labour market, and the shortage of existing... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth set to resume upward trend in 2018 We estimate that payroll employment growth rebounded to an above-trend 200,000 in January. That may have been enough to push the unemployment rate down to a new cycle-low of 4.0%, which would provide... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The fall in crude stocks last week was overshadowed by rising US output, lower refinery runs and ballooning gasoline inventories. Indeed, US oil production is now within touching distance of 10m bpd... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales dropped by 3.6% m/m in December, reversing much of November’s surprise jump. That left sales up a marginal 1.1% over 2017, and just 2.6% over the past two years. The lack of... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Nov.) The FHFA reported a moderate 0.4%m/m rise in house prices in November, and the annual growth rate is now at a 10-month low. Despite tight market conditions, active housing demand is being constrained... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on track for March rate hike Janet Yellen’s final FOMC meeting will pass with little fanfare, but the language of the accompanying policy statement looks set to strike a more hawkish tone. That would leave the Fed on course to... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update A change to our house price coverage We are making a change to our regular coverage of house prices, and will now provide a data response on the FHFA house price index, rather than the CoreLogic index. That change reflects both practical... 23rd January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update A primer on Federal government shutdowns It is still possible that Congress will reach a late deal to avoid a partial government shutdown beginning this weekend, but the chances of agreement seem to be slipping away. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite the small decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in January, the index still points to consumption growth remaining close to 4% annualised. 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Political risks back on the menu Congress may still avoid a partial government shutdown this weekend if another short-term continuing resolution squeaks through a Senate vote. That will keep the lights on for another month, but a... 19th January 2018 · 1 min read
