Global Markets Update No swan song for the dollar We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Production increased dramatically last week, mainly due to revisions to the historical data. However, output is growing much more quickly than many expected which should continue to put downward... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) Concerns that mortgage rates are set to rise gave both refinancing and home purchase mortgage activity a significant boost in January. But, with mortgage rates now at four-year highs, and no... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Dec.) Despite the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $53.1bn in December, from $50.4bn, a continued acceleration in real export growth should ensure that net trade is, at worst, neutral... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sell-off underlines markets’ previous complacency The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Easing financial conditions pose a problem for the Fed Despite long-term Treasury yields rising sharply this week to their highest level in four years, broader measures suggest that overall financial conditions have actually continued to loosen. Corporate... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 200,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which was above the consensus estimate but in line with our own forecast, leaves the Fed firmly on track to raise rates in March. And with signs that... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in January left it well above historical averages and consistent with GDP growth of over 4% annualised. With domestic demand receiving a boost from tax... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are rental investors beginning to sell up? A decline in the stock of rental homes may simply be noise. But it may also be an early sign that rental investors are taking advantage of high prices and low inventory to sell up. If so, and if it... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update March rate hike coming Janet Yellen’s final meeting as Fed Chair pretty much summed up her entire tenure; policy was left accommodative but there were hints it will be tightened gradually in the future. The more hawkish... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A slump in demand for oil from refineries and another increase in production combined to boost US crude inventories last week for the first time since mid-November. At least part of the recent surge... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has so far been exceptionally gradual, which helps to explain why there’s been next to no impact on the monetary aggregates. Meanwhile, bank lending growth has... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How much of the rise in oil prices is due to the dollar? We think that about half of the surge in oil prices since the start of December can be attributed to the slump in the US dollar. However, a stronger dollar should put some downward pressure on oil... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q4) A homeowner vacancy rate close to a 17-year low didn’t prevent a welcome rise in the homeownership rate to 64% in the final quarter of 2017. But the lack of homes for sale has driven more households... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in January, which beat consensus expectations but was roughly in line with our own estimate, suggests that real consumption growth... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Saving rate going to zero…and that’s okay (probably) The household saving rate fell to a 12-year low of 2.4% of disposable income in December and, based on the recent surge in the values of equities and real estate, it could fall all the way to zero. 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
