US Economics Update Weaker dollar is here to stay After depreciating by almost 10% in trade-weighted terms since the beginning of 2017, we suspect that the dollar is set to remain relatively stable over the next few years. The depreciation already... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Strong demand to support US natural gas prices US natural gas prices should rise this year as domestic demand and LNG exports experience an upsurge. However, a jump in supply will limit the increase in prices. 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Another ugly first quarter? The early activity data for January have come in below expectations, raising the possibility that economic growth may once again disappoint in the first quarter. Both industrial production and... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The strong rise in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in February may be the first sign of the boost to consumers from lower taxes and suggests that, even if consumption growth slows... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) At first glance it appears that housing starts had a very strong start to the year. The 9.7% m/m jump in January more than reversed December’s decline. But the volatile multifamily sector was... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pick-up in inflation is the real deal The January consumer price data were the clearest sign yet that inflationary pressures are beginning to build. While inflation was boosted by a rebound in clothing prices and a recovery in vehicle... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in January isn't a huge surprise following the rapid growth at the end of last year. Along with the weaker retail sales data released yesterday, however... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US inflation not (yet) a big threat to EM economies Concerns about rising inflation pressures in the US have sent shockwaves through EM financial markets over the past week or so, but the economic fallout is likely to be limited. A sharp and sustained... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of both crude oil and gasoline rose again last week. Meanwhile, production in the US continued to grow. We expect the surge in US output to push the market back into a surplus this year... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are housing stocks signalling the next correction? In contrast to 2005, the recent surge and subsequent retreat in homebuilder share prices is not a signal that the housing market is set for a damaging correction. Back then, homebuilder share prices... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The weaker tone of the January retail sales report, which showed a stagnation in underlying sales and downward revisions to previous months, suggests that real consumption growth is set to slow in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Headline CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.1% in January, but the bigger story was the broad-based 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices. In three-month annualised terms, core inflation climbed to a... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to faster wage growth The January NFIB small business survey paints an upbeat picture of economic activity, but it also suggests that the markets are right to focus on the prospect of faster wage growth this year. 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US infrastructure plan won’t lift commodities demand We are sceptical that President Trump’s infrastructure plan will be approved by Congress. What’s more, even if congressional approval is forthcoming, the reliance on state and local governments and... 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Budget deal raises risks further ahead The budget deal will raise federal spending this year by as much as 0.7% of GDP, providing an extra fiscal stimulus to an economy already boosted by the recent tax cuts. While that will mean 2018 is a... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates close to a four-year high By the end of January mortgage interest rates had risen to close to four-year highs, and the expectation of that rise briefly boosted mortgage applications for home purchase to eight-year highs. But... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
