Commodities Update What will US tariffs mean for steel prices? President Trump’s announcement of tariffs on steel and aluminium imports was expected. But what is perhaps more surprising is that the tariffs are particularly punitive and threaten to ignite... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How big a deal are the US tariffs? Steel and aluminium account for about 2% of world trade, so the direct impact on the global economy of the tariffs President Trump announced yesterday would be minimal. But the fact that they are... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The surge in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 130.8 in February, from 124.3, underlines that household sentiment has not been knocked by the recent bout of stock... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch US Fed to tighten further than previously expected Central banks in the major advanced economies are now moving in the same direction, but they are doing so at very different speeds. The Fed is tightening policy in earnest, with six rate hikes likely... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) The Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indices painted contrasting pictures in December. Annual growth on the Case-Shiller index rose to 6.3%, the highest level since May 2014. But the FHFA reported a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Fed Chair Powell Testimony The sharp fall in durable goods orders in January wasn’t quite as bad as it looks, as it was mainly driven by a plunge in both defence and commercial aircraft orders. But the details still suggest... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Looser fiscal policy spells more trouble for Treasuries The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The 7.8% m/m drop in new home sales in January looks, at least partly, to reflect cold weather in the South and Northeast. With inventory levels at nine-year highs, and demand supported by rising... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Jan.) World Steel Association (WSA) data showed a 0.8% y/y increase in global steel production in January led by higher output in the EU, India and Turkey. US production remained weak, which is one reason... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade carries over momentum into 2018 Global trade volumes grew by 4.5% in 2017 as a whole – the fastest rate of annual growth in five years, and faster than the 3.7% expansion in global GDP. Encouragingly, the signs are that world trade... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will a growing twin deficit drive the dollar even lower? The dollar’s weakness in the face of tighter Fed policy is reminiscent of the mid-2000s. At the time, interest rates and bond yields also moved in favour of the US, but its currency was dragged down... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Near-term outlook bright, but tougher times lie ahead With the economy set to receive an additional fiscal boost following the recent deal in Congress to raise the discretionary spending caps, we are revising up our GDP growth forecasts for both this... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week. However, this was mainly due to a drop in net imports which are notoriously volatile. As such, we think that stocks could rebound in the coming weeks, which... 22nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US-led recovery in global equity markets last? The US initially led the recovery in stock markets around the world from their falls of a few weeks ago. But the S&P 500 faltered a bit earlier this week, and we doubt that it will drive global... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales fell for a second consecutive month in January, leaving them 5% lower than at the start of last year. The good news is that there was a marginal pick up in the number of existing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
