Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs become reality The big news this week was confirmation of President Trump’s tariffs on US steel and aluminium imports on national security grounds. This sent US steel prices even higher, but weighed on prices in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The massive 313,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in February, the biggest in 18 months, together with the 54,000 upward revision to gains in the preceding two months, illustrates that the economy is... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus US fiscal stimulus to have limited global impact The Trump fiscal stimulus, which has turned out to be larger than seemed likely a few months ago, should boost economic growth in the US a little, and encourage the Fed to press on with six rate hikes... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update What do US tariffs mean for steel & aluminium? President Trump’s tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium are likely to be a bigger deal for the price of US steel than aluminium. But US steel prices have already surged, which coupled with higher... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A rebound in net imports and jump in US production drove crude stocks higher last week. Surging oil supply from the US is a key reason why we expect oil prices to fall over the rest of this year. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Do the NAFTA talks have implications for commodities? If the US were to withdraw from NAFTA, it could lead to downward pressure on US agricultural prices. But the impact on the more industrial commodities, including energy, is likely to be limited. 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus How big a threat are Trump’s tariff proposals? It looks increasingly likely that President Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium on grounds of national security will be implemented in some form. If so, other governments... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a nine-year high of $56.6bn in January, from $53.9bn, suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on economic growth in the first quarter, and will only add... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Feb.) The jump in mortgage applications seen in January has been quickly reversed, with total applications posting a 6.2% m/m drop in February. The rise in mortgage interest rates, which reached their... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jan.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has begun to gather pace but is still having next to no impact on the monetary aggregates, suggesting that the effect on the broader economy will also be small... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Renewed boom in productivity remains elusive Following a decade when productivity growth averaged barely 1% per year, we anticipate a modest acceleration to 1.5% over the next few years, principally because the low unemployment rate, rising... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Low rental yields in the West not yet a risk for prices Single-family rental yields have been declining in most states over the past six years, with strong house price gains in the West leading to relatively large yield drops there. With interest rates on... 5th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential trigger points The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Trump’s tariffs target commodities It was generally a negative week for commodity prices. Oil prices tumbled and precious metals prices were buffeted by Jerome Powell’s testimony, which all but ensured a rate hike this month. China’s... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risk of another Q1 wobble appears to be rising Our long-held belief that a rebound in core inflation and faster economic growth, partly due to fiscal stimulus, would prompt the Fed to hike interest rates four times this year is rapidly becoming... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump, tariffs and potential triggers The steel and aluminium import tariffs announced by the US yesterday are unlikely to have a major impact on emerging economies but fears that they might presage a broader shift towards protectionism... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
