US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of renewed interest in ‘meme’ stocks Even if interest in ‘meme’ stocks rebounds following a renewed surge in GameStop’s share price, some of the telltale signs that a bubble in the broader stock market may be entering its final stages –... 14th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Mortgage rates climbed back above 7% last month but we think that trend will soon reverse, with rates falling to 6.5% by year-end. Lower borrowing costs will draw more mortgaged buyers into the market... 14th May 2024 · 1 min read
Climate Economics Update Battery imports to bear the brunt of new US tariffs The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (Apr.) The bigger-than-expected 0.5% m/m increases in both all items and core final demand producer prices in April were mainly due to downward revisions to earlier months, with the 0.2% m/m gains in March... 14th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: US and Europe to raise China tariffs – A new phase in global fracturing? 1715760000 After weeks of rising tensions around the question of Chinese industrial overcapacity, the Biden administration has announced a new raft of tariffs on goods from China.
Capital Daily JGB yields may keep going it alone, helping the yen While we expect government bond yields in most developed markets to fall back, we think that those in Japan will stabilise around their current levels. In turn, we anticipate that interest rate... 13th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Was April the sweetest or the cruellest month? After a quiet week for data this week, following April’s softer Employment Report, things will heat up again next week with April’s CPI report. 10th May 2024 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Storms on the horizon for West Coast port markets After a prolonged period of weakness, the West Coast ports have seen an improvement in trade volumes recently. However, industrial demand in these markets remains very weak and growing headwinds –... 10th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Europe’s mega-cap breakfast may remain less than magnificent The shares of the very biggest, ‘mega-cap’, firms have generally outperformed those of smaller ones by less in Europe than they have in the US on net so far this decade. We expect that to remain the... 10th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Confidence (May) The renewed slump in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment gauge to a six-month low of 67.4 in May, from 77.2, is hard to explain given that gasoline prices are now falling again, the stock... 10th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Shutting out institutional buyers won’t lower house prices Lawmakers' current efforts to restrict institutional buying of single-family homes won’t put downward pressure on house prices if enacted, as their market share is minimal. 9th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (Apr. 2024) The small rebound in mortgage demand in March proved short-lived, as higher borrowing costs caused home purchase mortgage applications to drop 2.3% m/m in April. But the 10-year Treasury yield’s... 8th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads can’t fall forever The near-relentless narrowing in US credit spreads over the past year or so has left them at their lowest levels since late 2021. This echoes similarly upbeat pricing in the stock market. But, while... 7th May 2024 · 4 mins read
