US Housing Market Outlook Tight markets support house price and rental growth This quarter sees the launch of a redesigned US Housing Market Analyst. The aim of the Analyst, to provide our views on the outlook for the US housing market, remains the same. However, there is now a... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Can the G20 avert a trade war? Finance ministers from the G20 are not going to resolve the differences between the US and most other members of the group on trade policy this week. They may, however, make a commitment to reduce... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising prime-age participation a new structural trend The surge in job growth in February, which was fuelled by a rise in new entrants to the labour force, supports the doves’ view that there is still hidden slack in the labour market. But the story isn... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All quiet on the commodities front There were few large moves in commodity prices this week. China’s activity data for the first two months of the year, published on Wednesday, were reasonably strong but failed to give a material lift... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Feb.) & UoM Cons. Confidence (Mar.) The strong rebound in industrial production in February was driven by an even larger gain in manufacturing output, and illustrates that the softer start to the year was just a blip. Meanwhile, the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The further decline in manufacturing sales volumes in January, broadly consistent with the drop in non-commodity exports already reported for that month, provides further evidence that the economy... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) The 7.0% m/m drop in housing starts in February was not a surprise. It was driven by the multifamily sector, where a 26.1% m/m drop fully reversed a similar surge in January. More of a concern is the... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor US tariff action on China would hit other EMs too Media reports suggest that the US is planning to impose more extensive tariffs on China. This could have a significant knock-on impact for a number of economies in Emerging Asia (Taiwan, Malaysia... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fiscal stimulus will prompt more monetary tightening With the benefits of the fiscal stimulus, strong global demand and the weaker dollar, we expect GDP growth to accelerate to 2.8% in 2018. As the fiscal stimulus begins to wear off and the cumulative... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed stepping up the pace of policy tightening The rebound in inflation, rapid employment growth and the recently announced boost to Federal spending for the next two years should convince the Fed to raise rates by 25bp at Jerome Powell’s first... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another rise in US production drove crude stocks higher last week, despite lower net imports and a rebound in demand from refineries. Surging oil supply from the US is a key reason why we expect oil... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The 0.1% m/m drop in headline retail sales in February was partly driven by weakness in autos and a price-related drop back in gasoline sales, but underlying sales were nevertheless subdued and... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Core consumer prices increased by a solid 0.2% m/m in February, extending the run of firmer monthly gains and pushing the three-month annualised core inflation rate up to a decade high of 3.1%... 13th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable is the S&P 500 to rising interest rates? The S&P 500 has tended to hold up well in the past when the Fed has tightened policy. But it has slid once the tightening has begun to take a toll on the economy. With this in mind, we don’t expect... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Strong rental demand keeps vacancy rate in check Mortgage interest rates have continued to rise, averaging 4.63% in February; their highest level since the end of 2013. But more of an issue for sales is the chronic shortage of homes for sale, which... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising trade deficit may embolden the protectionists Following the move this week to impose tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium, the widening in the trade deficit to a nine-year high in January is likely to have bolstered President Donald Trump’s... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
