US Housing Market Update The impact of faster earnings growth on house prices Our forecast that earnings growth will rise to a nine-year high of 3.5% by the middle of 2019 might be expected to give house prices a boost, particularly given the lack of inventory. However, the... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The gradual contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet is now starting to weigh on the monetary aggregates. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect bank lending growth to rebound soon. 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The small decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in March from an 18-year high in February leaves the index still well above its historical average. The relationship between... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) Case-Shiller reported that annual house price growth edged back to 6.2% in January, from 6.3% in December. That is the first time annual growth has fallen since June 2016, and supports our view that... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed’s new economic projections implausibly strong During his first post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell managed to signal faster rate hikes over the coming years while simultaneously calming the bond market by playing down the risks... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) The 0.6% m/m drop in new home sales was marginal, but it marks the third month in a row of falling sales. However, given the relatively healthy inventory of new homes and reports from homebuilders of... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The strong rise in durable goods orders in February was flattered by a rebound in transport orders, but the details showed an encouraging rebound in underlying capital goods orders. That suggests the... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big a deal are the China tariffs? The tariffs on Chinese imports outlined by President Donald Trump today won’t have a huge impact on the economy even if implemented in full, and we suspect they will end up being watered down. But as... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold shrugs off Fed rate hike Somewhat counterintuitively, the price of gold gained 1.4% following the Fed’s decision to hike US interest rates for the sixth time in this tightening cycle. However, we think that the recent rally... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Major central banks in no hurry to follow Fed The US Fed’s decision to increase rates by 25bp yesterday and to raise its projection of future rate hikes has limited implications for the rest of the world. Other than the Bank of England, most... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Jan.) After two months of slowing house price gains, the sharp 0.8% m/m rise in January reported by the FHFA might be a sign that price growth is accelerating. But, given how volatile the monthly data are... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Powell era begins on a hawkish note The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected but some investors may have been caught off-guard by the degree to which Fed officials increased their projections for... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Powell era begins on a hawkish note The Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 25bp today was widely expected but some investors may have been caught off-guard by the degree to which Fed officials increased their projections for... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week as imports dropped and demand from refineries jumped. However, production is still rising rapidly. We expect soaring output to lead to higher stocks and lower... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The 3% m/m gain in existing home sales in February was better than expected. Even so, that rise just reversed January’s drop, and left sales essentially unchanged from their level a year ago. With the... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weak spending growth just a blip The latest data indicate that GDP growth was no more than 2.5% annualised in the first quarter, with real consumption growth slowing to around 2%. That would hardly be a disaster, but is disappointing... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
