Commodities Update Tariff bark could be worse than its bite For now, there is optimism that ongoing negotiations between the US and China will prevent a significant escalation in trade tensions. However, there remains a risk of rising protectionism, which... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The widening in the trade deficit to a near-decade high of $57.6bn in February, from $56.7bn, was entirely due to a one-off royalty payment for broadcasting rights to the Winter Olympics. But net... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Declaration of (trade) war? The speed and scale of China’s retaliation to the proposed US tariffs represents a significant escalation of tensions, though there is still plenty of time for a deal to be struck before tariffs come... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as exports rebounded and refineries processed more crude. However, production set another weekly record. We still expect prices to fall this year as surging... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage interest rates reached a seven-year high in March, which in turn helped push refinancing activity to close to a 10-year low. Mortgage applications for home purchase performed better, rising... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US-China trade tensions and the impact on EMs The proposed US tariffs on imports of Chinese goods could have knock-on effects on other EMs, especially in East Asia, via supply chains. And countries such as Turkey are vulnerable to a deterioration... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update China raises the stakes of US trade action China’s rapid and aggressive response to the proposed US tariffs has raised the stakes for both sides. But its move to publish a list of counter-tariffs is primarily intended as a deterrent and we... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The likely consequences of escalating trade tensions Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Oil rises, despite trade woes Commodity prices drifted down in March, despite a relatively stable US dollar. However, given the slump in developed market equities, commodity prices held up relatively well. This was largely due to... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Decline in negative equity will support homebuilding One factor shared by states with particularly low levels of single-family permits is a high level of negative equity. Those states will have experienced the biggest housing market booms and busts... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Core PCE inflation to hit 2% very soon Although the annual core PCE inflation rate only edged higher to 1.6% in February there is now a good chance that base effects will push it up to 2.0% in March, leaving it in line with the Fed’s... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly First-quarter slowdown all about consumption The incoming activity data suggest that GDP growth slowed from an upwardly-revised 2.9% annualised in the fourth quarter to 2.0% or so in the first quarter. That would still be slightly above the... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Blockbuster first quarter for employment We estimate that payroll employment expanded by 250,000 in March, as the disruption from the recent flu epidemic faded. That should push the unemployment rate down to 4.0%, an 18-year low. 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the IT sector’s best days behind it? After outperforming for much of the past year or so, the IT sector has led the falls in stock markets in the past couple of weeks. Is a sustained period of underperformance now likely? 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose last week as imports rebounded and production grew again. Admittedly, demand from refineries and consumers is strong. But we still expect soaring output to lead to higher... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Trade spat will not deflect Fed (or BoE) from hiking We expect the Fed to raise interest rates three more times this year, and twice in 2019, but we think it will then begin to loosen policy in 2020. Other than the Bank of England, most major central... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
