Commodities Update Aluminium bears the brunt of US sanctions on Russia Aluminium is the only commodity which has been directly affected by the latest round of sanctions on Russia, but even there we think that the boost to prices will be temporary. Instead, the surge in... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update China Treasury holdings offer little leverage in trade spat China’s holdings of Treasury securities, which currently stand at almost $1.2trn equivalent to 8.2% of the total outstanding, offer it little leverage in the current trade spat with the US. Dumping... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Apr.) OPEC revised up its forecast of non-OPEC production in 2018 again and estimated that the market was in a surplus in the first quarter. Admittedly, the cartel still expects the market to be in deficit... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth will continue to outperform A divergence in rental vacancy rates over the past year, with single-family vacancies reaching a 21-year low as multifamily vacancies have risen, has meant rental growth for single-family homes has... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports rebounded and production rose again. The recent increase in prices is likely to encourage even more US production, which should weigh on prices... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rebound in core CPI inflation to a 13-month high of 2.1% in March, from 1.8%, was partly driven by base effects. But the recent strengthening of monthly price pressures suggests that core... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Has Xi done enough to placate Trump? In an attempt to de-escalate trade tensions, Xi has pledged to speed up efforts to reduce trade and investment barriers, boost competition and bolster intellectual property protections. This could... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Single-family starts stall despite tight market conditions Mortgage interest rates have risen to seven-year highs, which has pushed refinancing activity down to 10-year lows. Demand for home purchase mortgages is faring better, but even so buyers are still... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Will the IT sector fare worst when the S&P 500 slumps? Although we are not forecasting a recession in the US, we expect the economy there to slow significantly next year and think that this will contribute to a further downturn in the stock market. As a... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB survey reveals rising cost pressures The latest NFIB survey suggests the recent tax cuts aren’t providing much support to investment. But along with the March PPI data, it also provides further evidence that inflationary pressures are... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Recent stimulus worsens fiscal woes The latest CBO projections suggest that the recent fiscal stimulus will push the Federal budget deficit up to 5% of GDP soon. Moreover, there are reasons to expect the actual outcome could be even... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade tensions to remain at the top of the agenda The escalating threats over tariffs between the US and China have dominated the headlines this week. But next week could bring the more positive news of a ‘preliminary’ deal on NAFTA. Reports suggest... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is it time to worry about a trade war? While we still think that negotiations will win out over all-out trade war, the risks of a damaging trade conflict breaking out between the US and China have risen. If the latest US-proposed tariffs... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The modest 103,000 gain in payroll employment in March, which follows a massive 326,000 gain in February, is a good illustration of the inherent volatility in the non-farm payroll data. The March gain... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
