US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales increased for the second month in a row in March. But, at 1.1% m/m, the rise was modest and sales are still lower than at this time last year. A lack of inventory explains that... 23rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Have the tax cuts flopped? The weakness of real consumption growth, which appears to have slowed to only 1% annualised in the first quarter, suggests that the recent tax cuts have so far failed to provide any meaningful boost... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Too soon to worry about supply Commodity prices have generally had a strong start to the year, boosted in particular by risks to supply. However, in many cases, supply has not been disrupted yet and the worst fears of supply... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Good Trump, Bad Trump The apparent slowdown in economic growth in the first quarter, to between 2.0% and 2.5% annualised, is likely to be reversed as the boost from the recent fiscal stimulus outweighs any hit from... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week as net imports slumped. But the big surprise was a jump in demand for gasoline, to a new record. However, we would caution that such large moves in the... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Short-term risks of protectionism are overstated Even if the US and China were to follow through on their recent protectionist threats, the impact on global growth in the next year or two would be small. Moreover, a bigger and more damaging... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.5% increase in industrial production in March, following the upwardly revised gain of 1.0% in February, suggests that the factory sector is still in good health, although manufacturing output... 17th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update 10-year US Treasury yield unlikely to have peaked yet The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a four-year high of almost 3.0% in late February to only around 2.7% in early April, leading to claims that it had now peaked in this cycle. Yet the yield has... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Jump in debt-to-income ratios not yet a concern Fannie Mae’s announcement last August that it would accept mortgages with debt-to-income (DTI) ratios as high as 50% triggered a sharp rise in the share of high DTI mortgages. But we doubt that change... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Despite the stronger 0.4% m/m gain in underlying retail sales in March, real consumption growth looks to have slowed to around 1% annualised in the first quarter. Nonetheless, with incomes boosted by... 16th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Sanctions on Russia send aluminium soaring Geopolitical concerns intensified this week and led to sharp increases in those commodities at risk of disruptions to supply. In particular, the price of aluminium surged following the announcement of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Although it fell in April, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index remains at a high level by past standards and suggests that the slowdown in spending growth at the start of this year... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update How worried should we be about rising tensions? At least part of this week’s increase in oil prices is justified by the sudden escalation in tensions in the Middle East and resulting risk to oil supplies, either from sanctions or damage to oil... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will the digital economy raise productivity? Labour productivity growth picked up in 2017 and we suspect that it will rebound a little further over the next couple of years, as rising capacity constraints and the tightening labour market... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting China’s surplus into perspective China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US and concerns about unfair trade practices are likely to keep US-China trade tensions boiling for a long time. But China’s overall current account surplus is... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
