US Housing Market Chart Pack Buyers rush in to beat rising mortgage interest rates The rise in mortgage interest rates has had contrasting impacts on refinancing and home purchase mortgage applications. While refinancing applications dropped close to a 10-year low, home purchase... 8th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How far will inflation overshoot? We learned this week that core PCE inflation reached 1.9% in March, within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target, and we think it has further to rise over the rest of this year. We expect a gradual pick-up... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) With the unemployment rate hitting an 18-year low of only 3.9% in April, the Fed is still going to push ahead and raise rates again in June, even though average hourly earnings growth remained muted. 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Trade (Mar.), ISM Non-Mfg. (Apr.) & Productivity (Q1) The sharp decline in the nominal trade deficit to a six-month low of $49.0bn in March, from $57.7bn in February, was driven by an encouraging rise in exports. The data imply that net trade was broadly... 3rd May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big is the threat of zombie malls in Europe? Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita and tighter planning... 3rd May 2018 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Fed on course for next rate hike in June The Fed was never likely to signal a major shift in policy at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting today, with the fed funds target range left unchanged at 1.5% to 1.75% and the accompanying statement... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable even if inflation worries ease More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week as net imports increased, demand from refineries fell and production continued to grow. Indeed, we still expect surging US crude production to lead to lower... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) The rise in mortgage rates to a seven-year high of 4.8% over April has had contrasting impacts on refinancing and home purchase applications. Refinancing applications fell, approaching a 10-year low... 2nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Five key questions on Trump and the Iran nuclear deal There’s a growing chance that US President Donald Trump will refuse to waive sanctions on Iran later this month. In this Update, we answer five key questions on the sanctions and the nuclear deal, as... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.3 in April, from 59.3 in March, was worse than the consensus forecast and echoes the weaker tone of some of the early regional surveys. Nonetheless, on... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rental households not a risk for rental growth The number of households in the rental sector has seen year-on-year declines in each of the last four quarters. But an equivalent supply response, with some homes shifting to the homeowner sector and... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet continued to weigh on the narrow monetary aggregates in March, but this is unlikely to prove a major drag on the economy. Our measure of M3 shows that broad... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How vulnerable is Germany to US tariffs? Germany faces little threat from the US aluminium and steel tariffs that might come into force this week, but would be hit harder than most other European economies if the US imposed broader tariffs... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rate differentials unlikely to buoy the dollar for long The relationships between the dollar’s value against other “majors” and the gaps between expected interest rates in the US and those elsewhere appear to be re-establishing themselves. This has been... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch Three key risks to commodity prices In this Commodities Watch, we take stock of three of the most serious geopolitical risks that have emerged over the past few months. These are the prospect of a trade war between the US and China, US... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
