US Chart Pack Rising rates a headwind for the economy The continued surge in market interest rates will become an increasing headwind for the economy, especially next year when the boost from fiscal stimulus fades. Admittedly, the level of interest rates... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update How sustainable is the recent fall in gold prices? The recent fall has brought the price of gold close to our end-2018 forecast of $1,300. While Fed policy tightening is usually negative for gold prices, higher demand for inflation hedges and a weaker... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week as net imports slumped. However, we remain of the view that surging US oil output will weigh on prices later in the year. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries are probably set for more pain before gain Although the 10-year US Treasury yield has already risen substantially so far this year, we continue to forecast that it will end 2018 significantly higher than it is now before dropping back in 2019. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.7% m/m rise in industrial production in April was driven by a strong gain in manufacturing output and provides more evidence that activity is expanding at a faster pace in the second quarter. 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) As expected, a reversal of the surge in multifamily starts seen in March contributed to a 3.7% m/m drop in total housing starts in April. More of a concern is the lack of a sustained recovery in... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why is housing equity withdrawal falling back? Against our expectation for a slow recovery, housing equity withdrawal has instead fallen back over the past year. In large part that reflects subdued home sales which, in turn, are being constrained... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Although headline retail sales rose at a weaker pace in April, growth in underlying sales remained strong and past months’ gains were revised higher, which supports our view that the weakness in first... 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth to trend higher The job opening and labour turnover report and NFIB survey released this week suggest that labour market conditions continue to tighten and point to wage pressures rising further this year. We still... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Confidence (May) The continued strength of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in May doesn’t offer much encouragement as confidence has been a poor guide to spending in recent times. Nonetheless... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are Western city house prices overheating? Strong house price gains in Western cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Denver have pushed prices significantly above their previous highs seen just prior to the crash of the mid-2000s. However... 11th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do US sanctions on Iran mean for OPEC? Even though we doubt that the US sanctions will cause a large fall in Iran’s oil output, the rest of OPEC and Russia have enough spare capacity to prevent a shortage if US sanctions turn out to be... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The 3.0% m/m rise in gasoline prices pushed headline inflation to a 14-month high of 2.5% in April, but the more muted 0.1% m/m gain in core CPI suggests that the surge in underlying inflation in the... 10th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slumped last week as net imports fell. In contrast, US crude production rose to another record. The recent surge in crude prices is likely to lead to even faster growth in... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of the US sanctions on Iran The re-imposition of US sanctions on Iran is unlikely to have a major impact on global oil supply. However, geopolitical tensions have intensified and if Iran decides to pull out of the nuclear deal... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Trump and Iran’s nuclear deal: assessing the impact President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the nuclear deal with Iran is likely to prompt a fresh downturn in Iran’s economy but, as things stand, the economic impact on the rest of the MENA... 9th May 2018 · 1 min read
