US Housing Market Update Are rising house price expectations a concern? House price expectations have risen to an eight-year high on some measures, which raises the risk of a dangerous upward spiral in price growth developing. However, tight mortgage lending standards... 30th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Mar.) March’s strong gain in the Case-Shiller national house price index appears consistent with some recent evidence that house price expectations have begun to rise. But it is harder to reconcile with the... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Will rising oil prices hold the economy back? The rally in crude oil prices in recent months ought to be a negative for a net oil importer like the US, but we don’t expect the increase, up to now at least, to prevent an acceleration in GDP growth... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) Despite the rise in underlying durable goods orders in April, the slowdown in business equipment investment in the first quarter appears to have carried over into the second quarter, with little... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What’s holding single-family starts back? Despite high homebuilder confidence, single-family housing starts have lost momentum since the start of the year. A combination of lot and labour shortages, and the high price of materials, is... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update US auto tariffs would trigger retaliation from Japan The imposition of high tariffs on car imports that the US is considering would have a palpable impact on economic activity in Japan. This may be another empty threat by the Trump administration, but... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the dollar continue to recover? The dollar has continued to recover over the past month. This has coincided with a further increase in the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and elsewhere. Although this gap began... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA Prices / Existing Home Sales (Mar./Apr.) Signs that the inventory of existing homes for sale had stabilised have proved to be short-lived. Inventory levels reached a new low in April. With so few homes on the market it is not surprising that... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to keep Fed on track for June rate hike We expect a 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.9% and wage growth picking up. That would leave the Fed on track to raise rates again in June. 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil rose last week as net imports jumped despite a widening of the Brent-WTI spread. The spread is likely to remain wide over the next few months as surging output and logistical... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Deal with China doesn’t address underlying tensions The deal the US has apparently reached with China averts a full-blown trade war and provides another example of the administration backing down from tough rhetoric on trade in return for relatively... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) New home sales declined by 1.5% m/m in April, and downward revisions to the previous three months’ readings show that sales have struggled to gain traction so far this year. But, with the inventory of... 23rd May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising inflation expectations weaken the doves' case The recent rebound in inflation expectations is significant not only because it provides another reason to expect core inflation to trend higher this year, but also because it further weakens the case... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus How will monetary policy influence the markets? We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising rates beginning to squeeze household finances Households’ balance sheets are still in good shape, with debt burdens stabilising well below their pre-crisis levels and delinquencies low. However, the further rise in newly delinquent credit card... 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate sector well placed to cope with higher rates Higher market interest rates will undoubtedly act as a drag on household spending and business investment, offsetting some of the temporary boost from fiscal stimulus. We expect that will eventually... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
