Metals Chart Pack Trade war fears prompt metals sell-off Metals prices were caught up in the general market sell-off following the ramping up of tensions between the US and China in June. (See Chart.) Signs of softer economic growth in China also... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Surveys point to rebound in Q2, despite trade jitters Markit’s global manufacturing PMI slipped at the end of Q2 but remains consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth. We think that the latter picked up to over 3½% annualised last quarter. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Rising protectionism drags on commodity prices Overview – Most commodity prices fell in June, depressed by escalating trade tensions and a stronger US dollar. Energy prices were the main exception. 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The increase in the ISM manufacturing index in June is a clear sign that, for now at least, the strength of the domestic economy is more than offsetting any increased uncertainty on trade policy... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy shrugging off trade uncertainty Concerns over trade policy weighed on the markets this week, with only a brief respite from President Donald Trump’s last-minute decision to cancel the planned announcement of new investment... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Californian inventory rises, but for the wrong reasons The rise in the number of homes for sale in California, to its highest level in a year, is not the good news it first appears. The increase is due to a drop in home sales, rather than a rise in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Focus Is the sun setting on the oil market? Slowing economic growth and rapidly rising fuel efficiency, partly due to a surge in the number of electric vehicles, mean that growth in demand for oil will slow and eventually peak over the next... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed-ECB divergence has another year to run Over the next twelve months we expect the gap in policy rates between the US and euro-zone to continue to widen. The Fed is likely to raise rates every three months while the ECB leaves rates... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth set to slow We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment slowed to 180,000 in June. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 3.8%, but we suspect that annual wage growth rose further, a trend that... 28th June 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Trade tensions cast a wide net Concerns about the escalation in trade tensions and the potential negative implications for global GDP growth have sparked a sell-off in commodity markets this month. However, even if fears of a trade... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The decline in both headline and core durable goods orders in May indicates that growth in business equipment investment remained close to 5% annualised in the second quarter, much weaker than the... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update How hard could car tariffs hit the euro-zone? President Trump’s threat to retaliate to EU tariffs with a 20% tax on EU car exports sounds alarming. In fact, the direct effect on the euro-zone would be smaller than you might think, perhaps... 26th June 2018 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Apr.) The slowdown in annual house price growth to 6.4% on the Case-Shiller measure in April is in line with earlier data from the FHFA. In addition to record low levels of inventory, active housing demand... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second quarter rebound led by consumption After a disappointing first quarter, our calculations suggest that annualised GDP growth will rebound to more than 4% in the second quarter, driven by a big turnaround in consumption growth. Even... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) A decent 6.7% m/m rise in new home sales in May means the share of new single-family sales in total sales has reached a 10-year high. But that rise in sales has choked off what had been a steady rise... 25th June 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Time to worry about a trade war? Trade tensions have escalated faster and further than we had originally anticipated, capped this week by President Trump’s threat to apply a 10% tariff to $200bn of imports from China. We still think... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
