US Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Although underlying retail sales disappointed in June, upward revisions to earlier months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have accelerated to a healthy 3% annualised in the second... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank still too sanguine about the housing market The Bank of Canada appears increasingly confident in the economic outlook, but we think that its forecasts for GDP growth will prove to be too optimistic. Following this week’s increase in the policy... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Americans have not forgotten that house prices can fall The share of Americans who point to high house prices as a reason not to buy looks elevated in relation to the level of real house prices and mortgage affordability. That may reflect memories of the... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Powell takes centre stage The financial markets will have one eye on President Donald Trump’s summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin next week, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual congressional testimony is likely... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The continued upward trend in core CPI inflation, which rose from 2.2% to 2.3% in June, keeps the Fed on track to raise interest rates twice more this year. 12th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Could Trump withdraw from the WTO? President Donald Trump would probably struggle to pull the US out of the WTO on his own. But unless Congress starts taking a tougher stance against his protectionist urges, the continued use of... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth slows as demand weakens The recent drop in home buying sentiment, partly driven by concerns that prices are too high, is now evident in lackluster mortgage applications for home purchase. Applications fell 0.4% m/m in June... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil plunged last week due to a slump in net imports. What’s more, it seems likely that the rate of growth in US crude production has slowed recently, which, if sustained, could... 11th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to rising cost pressures The NFIB survey and JOLTS figures released today show that labour market conditions are still tightening. 10th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Soybean tariffs causing distortion in export growth The rush by US exporters to beat the imposition of retaliatory tariffs on soybeans by China will provide an artificial boost to second-quarter GDP growth, but will become a potentially significant... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Booming activity and tariffs adding to price pressures Activity is booming, with employment up by more than 200,000 again in June and second-quarter GDP growth apparently close to 4% annualised. But, alongside the recently imposed tariffs, strong activity... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Rise in natural vacancy rate may support rental growth It is possible that the large number of new apartments entering the market over the past year has acted to increase the ‘natural’ vacancy rate. Uncertainty about achievable rents in new buildings... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jun.) The 213,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which followed an even stronger 244,000 rise in May, provides further evidence that uncertainty over trade policy isn’t yet having a major impact on the... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How big of a deal would auto tariffs be? Applying tariffs on auto imports would represent the biggest escalation of protectionism so far. Even though the direct impact would be small, boosting the price level by 1% point or so and triggering... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (June) Demand for home purchase and refinancing both dropped back in June, as higher mortgage interest rates and inventory shortages weighed on housing market activity. With interest rates set to trend... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The monetary data reveal a sharp slowdown in M1 growth in May, to its weakest pace since early 2016. But this isn’t a serious concern. Our measure of M3 broad money continued to expand at a decent... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
