US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) The 1.0% m/m rise in headline durable goods orders in June was partly driven by the volatile transport category. But underlying orders also picked up, suggesting that the apparent slowdown in second... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Next round of trade war likely to hit US assets harder Despite the resilience of the S&P 500 recently, US assets have not been altogether immune to trade tensions. And we think that they will come under a lot more pressure if, as seems increasingly likely... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) Given the recent decline in home buyer sentiment, as well as the dip in existing home sales already reported, June’s fall in new home sales should not come as a surprise. That said the dip did more... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Trump criticism won't derail Fed's plans The Fed is unlikely to make any policy changes at next week’s FOMC meeting. But we expect the post-meeting statement to signal that, despite uncertainty over trade policy and criticism from President... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (May.) According to the FHFA, the easing in the average pace of monthly house price gains was extended into May. The implication is that the recent drop in home sales and home buying sentiment appear to be... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Flattening yield curve not the only bearish signal Recent trends in the survey evidence cast doubt on the idea that the Treasury yield curve is giving a misleading signal due to structural distortions. The curve may have steepened in recent days but... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) June’s drop in existing home sales means that activity levels in the first six months of this year were 2% lower than in the same period of 2017. Indeed, at 5.38m annualised, sales in June sat close... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Strong growth will keep Fed hiking despite Trump The GDP data due next week are likely to show the economy expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter. Uncertainty over trade policy appears to be worrying some firms but, with little sign so far... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Slowing demand a downside risk for housing starts Alongside lot, labour and material shortages, builders are now having to contend with growing evidence that the sales environment is becoming more testing. While the strong labour market, and lack of... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Putting the EU’s surplus in a global context The EU’s and, particularly, Germany’s trade practices have been criticised heavily by President Trump, prompting him in early July to label the trade bloc “as bad as China”. However, from a global... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week due to a rebound in net imports and lower demand from refineries. Production also increased, which is consistent with our view that rising US output will put... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet plans may need to change The Fed’s preference is to stick to the balance sheet normalisation plan it drew up last year, but we think a sharp economic slowdown will prompt the Fed to halt its balance sheet run-off in 2020. In... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Both single and multifamily housing starts recorded substantial declines in June. The fall of 12.3% m/m in total starts was the largest month-on-month drop since the end of 2016. Building permits were... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong second quarter unlikely to be repeated Our calculations suggest that second-quarter GDP growth was as strong as 4.5% annualised, driven by a rebound in consumption growth and a big export-fuelled contribution from net external trade. It... 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) The rebound in manufacturing output in June means the sector posted another near-2% gain in the second quarter overall but, with the dollar strengthening markedly in recent months and retaliatory... 17th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is it time to worry about the flattening yield curve? The recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve appears to have been driven partly by structural forces, but this time is rarely different and when the yield curve inverts, an economic slowdown... 16th July 2018 · 1 min read
