US Economics Weekly “Strong” GDP growth won’t be sustained While the Fed hailed activity growth as “strong” at its policy meeting this week, we doubt GDP growth will maintain a 4% plus annualised pace in the third quarter. It’s early days, but data released... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) Non-farm payrolls increased by a more modest 157,000 in July but, with the gain in the preceding two months revised up by a cumulative 59,000, the labour market still appears to be in good health and... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed sticking to its guns As was widely expected, the Fed left interest rates on hold today but, by upgrading its assessment of economic growth to “strong” in the accompanying policy statement, it hinted that it will keep... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped last week due to a rebound in net imports. Admittedly, overall production slipped back a little, but this was due to a temporary disruption. Meanwhile, gasoline demand... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) With the dollar strengthening, activity surveys weakening in other countries and concerns rising over the impact of tariffs, we suspect that, following July’s fall, the ISM manufacturing index will... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (July) Mortgage applications for both refinance and home purchase fell back in July, continuing the recent run of easing demand. The drop in mortgage interest rates seen at the beginning of the month proved... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the saving rate really that much higher? The upward revisions to the personal saving rate suggest that the consumption outlook could be brighter than we previously believed, but we would urge caution since those revisions are hard to square... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Growth in the broad monetary aggregates and bank lending has continued to accelerate in recent months even as the monetary base contracted, suggesting that the Fed’s balance sheet run-down is having... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (May) The May Case-Shiller house price index provided further evidence that the housing market is losing steam. The 0.4% m/m rise meant annual house price inflation held steady at 6.4%. High house prices... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Mining boost to economic growth no flash in the pan Unlike the pre-tariff spike in soybean exports, the near-100% annualised surge in mining structures investment in the second quarter, which accounted for 0.4% points of the 4.1% annualised gain in... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch The UK (not Japan) likely to tighten policy in August In our view, speculation that the Bank of Japan is preparing to dial back its ultra-loose monetary policy is misplaced. Meanwhile, the ECB is likely to leave its policy rates at rock-bottom levels... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economy riding wave of fiscal stimulus The acceleration in GDP growth, to an impressive 4.1% annualised in the second quarter, is principally due to the massive fiscal stimulus unleashed at the start of this year. Unfortunately, there is... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The 4.1% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP should ensure that the Fed continues to hike its policy rate once every quarter, particularly as core PCE consumer prices increased by 2.0% annualised... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war cancelled…maybe The unexpectedly successful trade meeting between President Donald Trump and EU President Jean-Claude Juncker yesterday has raised hopes that a much bigger trade war can be averted. Admittedly, the... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q2) The US homeownership rate was essentially unchanged in Q2 for the second consecutive quarter, confirming that the nascent recovery in the share of homeownership, which began in 2016, has stalled... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep the Fed hiking We anticipate a 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in July, with the unemployment rate falling back below 4% and average hourly earnings posting a 0.3% m/m increase. Despite objections from... 26th July 2018 · 1 min read
