US Economics Weekly Third quarter shaping up better than expected We learned this week that much of the strength of consumption growth in the second quarter was sustained in July, suggesting that third quarter GDP growth will be stronger than we had anticipated. The... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Rising inflation means Fed unlikely to abandon plans With inflation trending higher and economic growth receiving a boost from this year’s fiscal stimulus, it is unlikely that the destabilising declines in a few emerging market currencies will force the... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The lacklustre performance of housing starts seen since the start of year continued in July, with a marginal gain of under 1% m/m in both single and multifamily starts. Single-family starts are being... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% increase in manufacturing output in July adds to the evidence that growth in the manufacturing sector has peaked. Even if a major escalation of tariff barriers is avoided, the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in lumber price a small positive for housing starts There are a couple of reasons to hope that the drop in lumber prices over the past couple of months will be a positive for the housing market. First, it should encourage builders to start work on the... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & Productivity (Q2) Despite the continued strength of retail sales in July, real consumption growth still looks set for a gradual slowdown in the third quarter, as the boost from the recent tax cuts starts to fade. 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Inflationary pressures continue to mount Data this week showed core inflation hitting a decade high in July, even before the impact of the recent tariffs has had a chance to fully feed through. Against that backdrop, the Fed is almost... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Affordability at 10-year low, but no need to panic Housing affordability has reached a 10-year low. Even so, homes are still more affordable now than at any time prior to 2009. Accordingly, improving inventory levels and further gradual easing in... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in core inflation to 2.4% in July, a decade high, will be enough to convince the Fed to raise interest rates again in September. 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as buyers stay away Housing market activity has come off the boil, as rising interest rates, a lack of inventory and concerns that house prices are too high have all weighed on buying sentiment. Both new and existing... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising interest rates not a major drag on credit demand Rising interest rates appear to be weighing on mortgage demand but, for now at least, there are few signs of a sharp slowdown in consumer and business lending on the horizon. 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Free trade with the US: opportunity or threat? The accord between Presidents Trump and Juncker to aim for free US/EU trade in non-auto industrial goods poses a minor threat to some EU sectors, including chemicals and plastics. But existing tariffs... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil slipped last week but there are signs that demand for products is faltering, reflected in the rise in gasoline stocks. Indeed, lower consumer demand in response to high... 8th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Underlying wage pressures still building The June Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey provided more evidence that labour market conditions are tightening, which will keep wage growth on a steady upward trend. With few signs of a sustained... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms 2018: What's at stake? The most likely outcome of the midterm elections is legislative gridlock, although a second round of tax cuts would be unlikely even if the Republicans narrowly maintain control of both Houses of... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
