US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) According to the Case-Shiller index, house price growth continued to slow in June. The rise of 6.2% y/y was the smallest annual gain since November 2017. The recent moderation in mortgage applications... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed ignoring the noise Amid all the political drama of the past week, the clear message from Fed officials is that they remain committed to their plans to continue raising interest rates. That’s unlikely to change until... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) Despite the decline in headline orders, the July durable goods data suggest that business equipment investment growth is set to rebound in the third quarter. That provides further reason to think that... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Jun./Jul.) New home sales declined for the second month in a row in July, with a 1.7% m/m drop taking sales to a 10-month low. Housing demand is faltering as buyers have been put off by the lack of affordable... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ethanol is not the answer for US corn US corn farmers face considerable uncertainty over the potential for exports given rising global protectionism. What’s more, if export volumes dip, the US ethanol industry is unlikely to absorb any... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Markets underestimating scope for rate cuts in 2020 Both the consensus and financial markets are coming around to our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in 2020, but we still think they are underestimating how soon and how fast the Fed’s policy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump knows he can’t really influence Fed policy President Donald Trump’s recent public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell is a clever attempt to pre-emptively blame the Fed and its interest rate hikes for any future downturn in the US economy... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The longest bull market in US equities may end in 2019 The S&P 500 has not fallen by more than 20% since it began to climb after the last recession. As a result, the index has remained in a “bull market” that is about to become the longest ever... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell back last week as refinery demand remained strong and net imports dropped back. However, the rise in gasoline and product stocks does point to weaker consumer demand... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) The fourth month in a row of falling existing home sales has left them at a 2½ year low. On the supply side, a lack of affordable inventory is constraining sales. But demand is also falling back over... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update SPR could cushion loss of oil from Iran The sale of crude oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), announced yesterday, is not large enough to have a significant impact on global oil prices. That said, given the hefty size of the... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The slowdown in narrow money growth reflects the Fed’s efforts to shrink its balance sheet and the rise in interest rates, with the latter increasing the opportunity cost of holding funds in non... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update EM turmoil won’t derail the Fed’s plans There is no reason to believe that the latest bout of turbulence in emerging markets will prompt the Fed to reconsider future interest rate hikes, since the economic and financial market spillovers... 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium output was up by nearly 3% y/y in July, owing to higher production in China and India. We had warned that this could happen as the prospect of China’s anti-pollution winter cuts and... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Dollar’s rise won’t knock the Fed off course The near 6% rally in the dollar this year will trigger a slowdown in real export growth but, unlike the bigger dollar appreciation in 2014 and 2015, it won’t stop the Fed from continuing to hike... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
