Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell again last week, despite a rise in net imports. Meanwhile, US production, excluding Alaska, ticked up. We still expect slowing consumption growth and rising production in... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) The gradual contraction in mortgage demand continued in August, with applications for both refinancing and home purchase loans seeing month-on-month falls. To date, the drop in home purchase demand... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The sharp widening in the nominal trade deficit to a five-month high of $50.1bn in July, from $45.7bn, suggests that the big boost to GDP growth from net exports in the second quarter will be reversed... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The surge in the ISM manufacturing index in August to a 14-year high is hard to square with other evidence, which indicates that growth in the factory sector is slowing. The details suggest that... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four quick points on the trade war While the threat of a US-Mexico trade war may have diminished, the trade conflict between the US and China looks set to escalate. And overall, protectionist rhetoric and policies are likely to... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Trade policy still a clear downside risk President Donald Trump may have reached an agreement to overhaul NAFTA this week but, as his interview with Bloomberg on Thursday highlighted, his protectionist instincts haven’t gone anywhere. They... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are Chinese tariffs on US LNG a big deal? It looks increasingly likely that the Chinese government will levy a 25% tariff on imports of US liquefied natural gas (LNG). But we suspect that any tariff will have only a limited impact on prices... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls to seal deal for September rate hike We estimate that growth in non-farm payroll employment rebounded to 180,000 in August. Along with signs that diminishing slack is starting to push wage growth gradually higher, that would seal the... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed pressing on with rate hikes, others well behind Fed officials look increasingly confident in their plans to raise interest rates twice more this year while ECB officials are on course to end their asset purchases by December. Next year, though, we... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Why have US drilling rigs plateaued? The relationship between the number of US drilling rigs and oil prices appears to have broken down recently as drilling rigs have failed to rise in line with oil prices. This Energy Watch will examine... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil fell last week due to a drop in net imports, despite a slump in demand from refineries. Another slight decline in US production excluding Alaska is concerning, but we think... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Are rising rates already weighing on the economy? With the fiscal stimulus acting as a strong tailwind, economic growth has been unusually strong over the past few months but, below the surface, signs are emerging that rising interest rates have... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update How flexible is the Fed really? In his Jackson Hole speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revived Greenspan-era arguments that policy should be flexible and follow a “risk management” approach, but we doubt this amounts to much in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update After Mexico, could a US-China deal follow? This week’s agreement between the US and Mexico has raised hopes that the US and China could also resolve their dispute. But the agreement with Mexico underlines how much hangs on whether President... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rebound in the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure to a 17-year high of 133.4 in August is primarily a reflection of the current strength of the economy, but with the expectations index... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
