Global Markets Update Will EM equities fall much further? The fact that emerging market (EM) equities have dropped a long way recently does not mean that they cannot fall much further, or that they are likely to perform much better than their US peers in the... 18th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Stronger dollar will hold back exports The economy remains strong, with the fiscal stimulus still providing a big boost but, looking beyond headline GDP growth, there are signs that rising interest rates and the resurgent dollar are... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed raising risks of slowdown further ahead The further rise this week in market interest rate expectations for the next 12 months brought them almost in line with our own long-held and once-hawkish projections. But investors are increasingly... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The more modest 0.2% m/m gain in manufacturing output in August provides further evidence that the appreciation of the dollar over the past six months is now beginning to weigh more heavily on output... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Although retail sales were weaker than we had been expecting in August specifically, upward revisions to sales in previous months mean that real consumption growth still appears to have remained... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Hurricane Florence and mortgage delinquencies Experience from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma last year suggests the share of delinquent mortgages in the Carolinas, Virginia and Georgia will rise following Hurricane Florence. However, with the... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update We still expect the oil price to fall We think that the worst fears over supply will not be realised and that slower growth in global demand will prompt a significant fall in the oil price in 2019. However, logistical constraints on US... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trade war with China not a big risk to the outlook Recent developments suggest that the trade dispute with China will continue to escalate over the coming months, with a rising possibility that by early next year all bilateral trade could be subject... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in core consumer prices in August is unlikely to derail the Fed’s plans to continue hiking interest rates once a quarter, with another increase coming later this... 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report There was a hefty decline in inventories of crude oil last week, which was in part driven by higher refinery runs. However, stocks of gasoline and distillates both rose, as demand faltered. The latest... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus How concerning is the housing market slowdown? Housing market activity has slowed since the start of the year, as rising interest rates and record low affordable inventory has weighed on home buying sentiment. With interest rates set to rise... 12th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys suggest wage growth has further to rise The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that the recent acceleration in wage growth has further to run. 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The macroeconomic fallout from a China-US trade war For many companies the effects of the US and China imposing tariffs on all their bilateral trade would be substantial. But the macroeconomic consequences for the two countries, let alone the wider... 11th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity in the doldrums Mortgage interest rates, credit standards and buyer sentiment have all been stable over the past couple of months. But both mortgage applications for home purchase and home sales have seen further... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are the ISM surveys too good to be true? The ISM surveys released this week suggest that the economy is set for another quarter of growth above 4% annualised. We suspect that will prove a little too optimistic, but the bottom line is that... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 201,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August all-but guarantees that the Fed will raise interest rates later this month, particularly as wage growth reached a nine-year high. 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
