US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as interest rates rise Mortgage interest rates have continued to trend higher, and look poised to breach 5% for the first time since early 2011 in October. Alongside mortgage lending standards which are still tight, that... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Brent/WTI spread to narrow in 2019 There is now a large differential between the prices of US-based WTI oil and the more international benchmark, Brent. In our view, this spread could widen further in the near term, but we expect it to... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Surging interest rates will worsen eventual slowdown The recent strength of the economy appears to be pushing Fed officials in an increasingly hawkish direction. But the corresponding surge in market interest rates this week only reinforces our own view... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The weaker 134,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September may well be a one-off, reflecting some hit from Hurricane Florence. With large upward revisions to previous months’ payroll gains, a fall in... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Another look at the threat from quantitative tightening A year after the Fed began shrinking its balance sheet, global central banks’ net asset purchases have slowed sharply, and they are set to turn negative in January. However, we doubt that this will... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged last week, in large part as a result of higher net imports. We think we could see further stock builds in the coming weeks amid signs of softer demand and weak exports. 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Since the end of August, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has risen by 16bps, to stand at 4.96% in the final week of September. Given that, the corresponding 0.9% m/m rise in mortgage... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small decline in the headline ISM manufacturing index last month from a 14-year high in August still leaves it at an unusually high level, but it is difficult to square with the slowdown in global... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic impact of trade war still modest President Donald Trump’s renewed criticism of Canada this week means that the end-September deadline for a new trilateral NAFTA agreement is set to pass without a deal, increasing the threat that... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market slowdown to persist Housing market activity has experienced a marked slowdown since the start of the year, with mortgage applications, home sales, housing starts and house prices all losing momentum. Higher mortgage... 28th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Shifting policy mix points to economic slowdown Boosted by the fiscal stimulus, GDP growth is still on track to be a solid 2.8% this year but, as that stimulus fades and the Fed continues to tighten monetary policy, we expect growth to slow to 2.2%... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong employment gains set to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by 220,000 in September, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and average hourly earnings posting another decent monthly gain. That would be enough to... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Fed still going it (almost) alone We think the Fed is likely to raise interest rates three more times by the middle of next year. By 2020, however, we suspect that Fed officials will reverse course and cut interest rates in response... 27th September 2018 · 1 min read
