Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Although crude stocks rose again, a larger-than-expected draw on gasoline stocks stole the headlines. However, we think gasoline stocks will rise again when refineries come out of maintenance. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Aug./Sep.) New home sales dropped for the fourth month in a row in September, as rising mortgage interest rates have weighed on housing demand. House price growth has also continued to ease, with the 6.1% y/y... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Although narrow money growth rebounded in September, the Fed’s quantitative tightening will continue to exert downward pressure over the months ahead. Furthermore, signs are emerging that the Fed’s... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) The housing market slowdown continued in September, with existing home sales seeing the largest month-on-month drop since early 2016. Sales are likely to stay weak, but with the labour market still... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price crash unlikely A sharp drop in the share of homes seeing an increase in value over the past year is ringing alarm bells in some quarters. But the fact that housing demand is flat lining, rather than contracting and... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil jumped again as exports fell back sharply. The latest data are likely to have been distorted by Hurricane Michael but crude stocks have been building for some weeks and should... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The headline drop in housing starts in September was mainly driven by the volatile multifamily sector, but single-family starts also edged down. Looking forward, the good news is that lumber prices... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The modest 0.3% m/m rise in industrial production last month was driven by continued gains in manufacturing output, suggesting that the sector is holding up better than we had anticipated. But the... 16th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand to boost corn prices The USDA’s latest projections have not changed our view that ample supply will remain a problem for the grains and soybean markets. That being said, a fall in corn stocks, coupled with the potential... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) Despite the disappointing 0.1% m/m rise in headline retail sales in September, the strength of underlying sales suggests that third-quarter real consumption growth slowed only gradually to 3.5%... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Stock market carnage can’t be blamed on “crazy” Fed It is hard to explain this week’s sharp drop in equity prices in terms of the incoming economic data. True, following the surge in the 10-year Treasury yield that began last week, the sell-off in... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rising borrowing costs will cause growth to slow Although the Fed’s rate hikes have so far been modest compared to previous tightening cycles, actual borrowing costs faced by households and firms have risen more markedly. That is a key reason why we... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Inventories of crude oil surged for the second consecutive week as refinery output dropped and there was an increase in production. We expect stocks to continue to build in the coming weeks, which... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Debt: Is there another crisis looming? A widespread US debt crisis is unlikely but, over the next few years, over-leverage in the non-financial corporate sector, particularly the oil & gas, utilities and telecoms industries, could trigger... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The second consecutive modest rise in core consumer prices in September, together with the sell-off in the stock market, won’t be enough to prevent the “crazy’ Fed from raising rates again in December... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
