US Economics Update December rate hike coming As universally anticipated, the Fed left rates on hold today and there was nothing in the policy statement to suggest that officials are wavering from their plans to hike interest rates again in... 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices likely to prove unsustainable We believe that the price of US steel is currently too high, despite the 25% tariff on imports, and that slower growth in demand and higher domestic supply should prompt prices to fall back in 2019. 8th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update US midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The 30-year mortgage rate rose above 5% for the first time in over seven years in October, helping to explain why home purchase mortgage demand fell to a two-year low in October. If we are right in... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the big rise in TIPS yields The big rise in the real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the past year or so is a logical response to tighter Fed policy than investors were expecting. But it is... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Midterms don’t change the economic outlook The Democrats were widely expected to win control of the House in yesterday’s midterm elections and the results set the stage for two years of legislative gridlock. President Donald Trump and the... 7th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Still few signs of pick-up in productivity growth There are few signs that the recent tax cuts have boosted the economy’s supply side and, with business investment growth moderating, the prospect of a marked pick-up in productivity growth is fading... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US midterms unlikely to trigger a big market reaction We don’t expect today’s midterm elections in the US to have a major bearing on its stock market, even if the Republicans retain both chambers of Congress or the Democrats do very well. 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales fall again New and existing home sales fell again in September, as higher mortgage interest rates weighed on demand. But those homes that are selling are doing so quickly, and the strong labour market argues... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All eyes turn to the US The US is set to take centre stage next week as it re-imposes sanctions on Iran’s oil on Monday. While this may spark bargain hunting, after this week’s slump in prices, any relief rally should be... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Midterms will split Congress; Fed on hold until Dec. The betting odds suggest that there are few uncertainties surrounding the broad outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections, with the Democrats likely to win control of the House while the Republicans... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & International Trade (Sep.) The 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October, following a more modest 118,000 gain in September, confirms that Hurricane Florence temporarily depressed employment in September. The BLS suggests... 2nd November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month low of 57.7 in October, from 59.8, leaves it still at a relatively high level by past standards. Nevertheless, it does suggest that the... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Last month’s rebound in the US dollar is unlikely to last Although some of things that triggered a rebound in the US dollar in October are likely to continue to underpin the currency in 2019, we still think that it will weaken then as the Fed stops raising... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Causes of weakening housing demand Rising interest rates, declining house price expectations and cuts to the tax advantages of owning a home have all weighed on housing demand since the turn of the year. Of these, the drop in house... 1st November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks rose for a sixth consecutive week boosted by higher US oil output and another release from the SPR. That said, product stocks fell sharply but we think this has more to do with subdued... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
