US Economics Update Households well placed to withstand higher rates With debt servicing costs still low and delinquency rates stable, households’ debt burdens are unlikely to emerge as a source of trouble, even as rising interest rates cause economic growth to slow... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The subdued 0.1% m/m rise in industrial production in October was partly the result of temporary disruptions linked to Hurricane Michael, with manufacturing output continuing to expand at a healthy... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slumping oil prices radically alter inflation outlook The collapse in crude oil prices over the past month has radically altered the outlook for headline consumer price inflation over the next 12 months. The stronger dollar will only add to the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A combination of higher domestic production, low refinery runs and a fall in exports contributed to the eighth consecutive weekly build in US crude stocks. If nothing else, the latest data bolster the... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three reasons why QT won’t drive UST yields up much A reassessment of the prospects for interest rates will probably play a far bigger role than the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) in influencing Treasuries next year. Indeed, we expect the 10-year... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Looking beyond the 0.8% surge in headline retail sales, which was boosted by a price-related rise in gasoline sales, there are signs that underlying spending growth has begun to slow. Even accounting... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US energy prices overshoot This week’s dramatic moves in US energy prices reflect underlying fundamentals to some extent. Indeed, we remain positive on the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019, but see little upside for oil... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rebound in headline CPI inflation to 2.5% in October, from 2.3%, was mostly driven by a rise in gasoline prices that will be more than reversed over the next couple of months. The rest of the... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation has already peaked The modest growth of unit labour costs and appreciation of the dollar this year suggest that core inflation is unlikely to rise much further. With inflation quiescent, we expect the Fed to continue... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update It’s not all bad news in the housing market Amongst all the housing market gloom it is easy to overlook the fact that homes are selling quickly, prospective buyer traffic volumes are high and mortgage lenders are approving a high share of... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slumping gasoline prices will drag on inflation The recent slump in crude oil and gasoline prices means that headline CPI inflation could fall well below 2% for most of next year. But, given that lower prices would also provide a small boost to... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will housing drag the economy under again? The housing market is unlikely to cause another crisis as it did in 2007. But the slowdown in housing activity is a clear sign that the Fed’s interest rate hikes are starting to take their toll on the... 12th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Under-35 homeownership rate will soon flatten out Unlike some, we do not think that the latest rise in homeownership among the under 35s heralds an imminent revival in housing market activity. In fact, it tells us more about the previous strength of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Gridlock increasingly likely after Sessions firing The results of this week’s midterm elections were in line with expectations, but President Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to fire his Attorney General Jeff Sessions would seem to reduce the odds... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas to hold on to its gains We expect the average price of US natural gas to rise in 2019 on a combination of low stocks and strong growth in demand, both domestic and external. This will more than absorb steadily increasing... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
