US Housing Market Focus Slowing home sales good news for the rental market Home sales are set to tread water over the next couple of years, which is good news for the rental sector. If Americans aren’t buying homes, many will look to rent one instead. Admittedly, the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly The Powell put and Trump’s gut Fed Chair Jerome Powell's language earlier this week prompted some in the markets to claim he had taken a sudden dovish turn, possibly in response to pointed criticism from President Donald Trump. We... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update G20…or Xi20? The most that can reasonably be hoped for from talks between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at this weekend’s G20 meeting is an agreement which temporarily reduces US-China tensions. Meanwhile, the wider... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment strength supports December rate hike We anticipate that growth in non-farm payrolls slowed to 190,000 in November, following last month’s post-hurricane surge. Hourly earnings growth should hit a near-decade high of 3.2%, clearing the... 29th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) Even after a significant upward revision to September’s estimate, the 8.9% m/m drop in new home sales in October was enough to send sales to a 2½-year low. But a drop in mortgage interest rates over... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Sep.) With higher mortgage interest rates weighing on housing demand, it is not a surprise that the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported slower annual house price growth in September. We doubt mortgage rates have... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Narrow money growth continues to slow, but that is mainly due to rising interest rates, which have reduced the portfolio demand for money. The stronger pace of growth in both broad money and bank... 27th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update A lot of hot air in the US natural gas market We expect that the combination of low stocks and strong demand growth will ensure that the average price of US natural gas will be higher in 2019 than in 2018, despite steadily increasing supply. 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What the S&P’s slump tells us about the US economy While the 10% drop in the S&P 500 since early October can be partly blamed on plunging oil prices and concerns about global demand, it also seems to reflect justified fears about the US economic... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Persistently high US oil production meant that crude stocks built again, despite a revival in refinery activity. What’s more, rising output of petroleum products means that we could start to see... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The first rise in existing home sales for six months in October provided a rare piece of good housing market news. That doesn’t signal the end of the slowdown, but it does indicate that the strong... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dec rate hike still on; Focus turns to Trump-Xi summit Growing concerns about the health of the global economy have prompted speculation that the Fed won’t hike interest rates as aggressively as previously believed. We suspect that the strength of the... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) Ignore the 4.4% fall in durable goods orders last month, it was mostly due to a drop back in defence orders. The genuine bad news here is the fact that underlying capital goods orders and shipments... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong domestic economy will keep the Fed hiking Despite the darkening global backdrop, the continued strength of the US economy will be enough for the Fed to raise interest rates as planned in December. Fed officials have acknowledged the weakness... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family housing starts dropped for the second month in a row in October, and building permits saw their first annual decline in 4½ years. Faltering new home demand has hit homebuilder confidence... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Durables consumption is the other shoe to drop In contrast to other rate-sensitive areas of spending, durable goods consumption has held up well in recent months, boosted by the tax cuts. Nevertheless, as the fiscal stimulus fades and interest... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
