US Housing Market Chart Pack Dip in mortgage interest rates boosts housing demand A drop in mortgage interest rates in November led to a welcome boost in mortgage demand, which has risen to a five-month high. That should provide some support to home sales over the next month or two... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US financials unlikely to keep outperforming in 2019 In contrast to their relatively strong performance over the last decade, we expect financials in the US to fare worse in general than their counterparts in the euro-zone and the UK next year. 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Signs of things to come in a week of market turmoil We think that this week’s turbulence provides a reasonable guide to the trends to watch for in markets next year. In particular, while both the S&P 500 and US Treasury yields have started to drop a... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves jar with near-term economic prospects The big market moves over the past week – with stock markets and bond yields both falling sharply – present something of a dilemma for our own views. We have long expected an economic slowdown in 2019... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the current heightened nervousness, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Domestic debt deleveraging continues The Fed’s latest Financial Accounts release shows that total domestic credit market debt fell back to a 12-year low of 326% of GDP in the third quarter, from a peak of 370% in early 2009. Admittedly... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus As US slowdowns go, this one won’t be too worrying The US slowdown that we anticipate next year will weigh on global growth, but the impact will be relatively mild by past standards. This means that interest rates in some areas will be rising at the... 7th December 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks fell sharply at end-November for the most part owing to a jump in US exports, which could be sustained given that crude prices in the US are still markedly lower than elsewhere. 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What to make of the inverted yield curve The sharp flattening of the yield curve, which has now inverted between two and five years out, is consistent with our view that economic growth is set to slow significantly next year. We currently... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) & ADP Employment (Nov.) The widening in the trade deficit to $55.5bn in October, from $54.6bn, was mainly driven by a further plunge in exports to China, and suggests that net trade will once again be a drag on GDP growth in... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Surge in new home supply won’t crash house prices On past form the jump in the months’ supply of new homes to an eight-year high would be consistent with outright falls in national house prices. However, the existing home inventory is not far off... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) The drop in the 10-year Treasury yield over the past month has brought down mortgage interest rates. In turn, mortgage applications for home purchase have risen to close to a five-month high. Mortgage... 5th December 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in November primarily reflects the strength of domestic demand and provides some support to our forecast that GDP will expand by 2.7% annualised in the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump less likely to back out of his own trade deal The trade ceasefire agreed by Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping bears a striking resemblance to the ill-fated deal reached back in May but, with Trump himself having personally negotiated the... 3rd December 2018 · 1 min read
