US Housing Market Update Key calls for 2019 Our forecast for a steady decline in mortgage rates over 2019, to 4.3% by the end of the year, is significantly below consensus. But, despite that, we have below-consensus calls for home sales and... 10th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Too soon to assume Fed will repeat 2016 climb-down There is a clear possibility that, as in early 2016, slowing global growth and further weakness in financial markets will prompt the Fed to abandon its plans to continue hiking interest rates. With... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The slowdown in narrow money growth to a 10-year low in November is nothing to fear because it mainly reflects a shift in the portfolio demand for money. With broad money and bank loans expanding at a... 9th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Borrowing costs an increasing drag on investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that labour market conditions remain exceptionally tight, although higher interest rates are restraining business investment. 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage demand stalls despite fall in interest rates Mortgage interest rates saw further declines in December, and look set to drop back to 4.5% over the next few weeks. However, a spike in mortgage applications for home purchase in the first half of... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Trump, Powell and Mnuchin Firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, even if President Donald Trump actually had the power to do so, would do little in practical terms to change the future course of monetary policy. Arguably the bigger... 8th January 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose at the end of December as domestic production remained stable and crude inputs to refineries grew. While the slight increase in crude stocks is not too concerning, the surge in... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shutdown likely to continue into third week The Federal government has now been partially shuttered for the past two weeks, which already makes it one of the longest closures on record. Given the intransigence on both sides, there is a very... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The far bigger than expected 312,000 jump in non-farm payrolls in December would seem to make a mockery of market fears of an impending recession. Admittedly, employment is a coincident indicator... 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Putting the slump in the S&P 500 into perspective The S&P 500 has already fallen to around 2,450, a bit below our once-bearish end-2019 forecast of 2,500. This is causing us to question whether it will even end the year that high. 4th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The sharp fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 54.1 in December, from 59.3, echoes the deterioration in the other manufacturing surveys and suggests that the slowdown in global growth is starting to... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The drop in mortgage applications in December, even as interest rates saw further falls, supports our view that lower financing costs will not be enough to boost housing market activity in 2019. A... 3rd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll gains to bounce back Our model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in December, with the unemployment rate dropping back to 3.6%. Base effects mean that annual wage growth probably declined to 2.9%. 2nd January 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods; Personal Income & Spending (Nov.) The 0.8% m/m rebound in durable goods orders in November masked further weakness in underlying orders, suggesting that growth in business equipment investment continued to slow in the fourth quarter... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage market can weather the shutdown If it continues, the partial Federal shutdown is likely to lead to a decline in the mortgage closing rate. But lenders showed flexibility to get around the virtual closure of the FHA and IRS during... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets increasingly pricing in a Fed mistake The clear view in financial markets in the wake of the December FOMC meeting is that any further rate hikes over the coming months are likely to be reversed in 2020. Our long-held forecast is that a... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
