US Employment Report Preview Robust payrolls remain a bright spot We anticipate a robust 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February, while a post-shutdown rebound in household employment will cause the unemployment rate to drop back to 3.9%. 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4) GDP increased by 2.9% last year, up from 2.2% in 2017, but that acceleration is no surprise given the size of the fiscal stimulus introduced early last year. As the stimulus fades and the lagged... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor End of QT unlikely to affect bond valuations much In his semi-annual testimony to Congress, Jerome Powell reiterated that the Fed is deciding how and when to end its balance sheet rundown. Although some officials have indicated that it could finish... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homebuilders right to feel confident The recovery in homebuilder confidence, even as existing home sales have hit three-year lows, reflects the relatively bright outlook for new home sales. While overall housing demand will ease due to a... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Conditions not conducive to a “profitless” S&P 500 rally The S&P 500 has rebounded by more than 11% so far this year in response to a shift in Fed policy and a thawing of the US/China trade war. Nonetheless, a further rally is unlikely given the darkening... 27th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to hike rates again this cycle Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the FOMC’s “patient” mantra in his testimony to Congress today, but we think the Fed is already done hiking interest rates. With GDP growth slowing below potential... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Dec.) Annual house price growth has continued to slow, and is likely to reach 2% by the end of the year. But that shouldn’t prevent a modest recovery in single-family housing starts, which ended 2018 at a... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economic growth slowing below trend The weak incoming data mean that economic growth is on track to slow below its 2% potential pace this quarter. That kills off any remaining prospect of further Fed rate hikes and, with economic growth... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Mueller may overshadow Trump, Kim and Powell Next week is shaping up to be a busy one, when congressional testimony by the Fed’s Chair, the delayed publication of fourth-quarter GDP and the second Trump-Kim summit could all be eclipsed by the... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Watch The shifting nature of US-Saudi oil relations There has been much commentary in recent months on the balance of power in relations between the US and Saudi Arabia. Many of the areas of mutual interest are geopolitical in nature and we are not... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) A pick-up in home purchase mortgage applications at the start of the year suggests the 1.2% m/m drop in existing home sales in January will soon be reversed. But the bigger picture is that a slowing... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The weakness of underlying durable goods orders in December suggests that equipment investment growth slowed further in the fourth quarter, and we expect it to remain weak for most of this year. 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash-out refinancing set for further gains High levels of home equity and falling mortgage interest rates mean the number of cash-out refinances will reach a 10-year high over the next couple of years. But tight credit standards and cautious... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Domestic weakness adds to global concerns With the global outlook continuing to darken, the US had until recently remained a relative bright spot. But the latest data suggest that outperformance may have been short-lived. January’s drop in... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Data reinforce Fed’s “patient” stance The Fed’s “patient” stance was originally a response to the deteriorating global economic and financial market backdrop, but the dreadful activity data and subdued inflation figures out this week... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m decline in industrial production in January was driven by a 0.9% drop in manufacturing output, suggesting that the US is now succumbing to the industrial downturn already evident across... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
