US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in rates won’t trigger a surge in house prices A decline in mortgage interest rates from the start of 2012 was an important factor behind the rise in house prices in recent years. But we don’t think the upcoming drop in interest rates will have... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The further decline in manufacturing output in February confirms that the global industrial slowdown is now weighing more heavily on US producers. With tighter fiscal and monetary policy constraining... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) The drop in new home sales in January came from an upwardly revised December figure, so sales haven’t lost too much momentum going into 2019. Looking ahead, a slowing economy argues against a strong... 14th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Weaker data rule out additional rate hikes With interest rates on hold, the focus at next week’s FOMC meeting will be on officials’ updated economic projections, which are likely to show a lower expected path for GDP growth and the fed funds... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus One million vacant homes a risk to our forecasts If a large number of the over one million homes being kept vacant as the owner does not wish to sell were to be brought to market, house prices are likely to drop by 5% to 10%. But while slowing house... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jan.) & Producer Prices (Feb.) The rebound in underlying capital goods orders in January stands out as a positive amid the recent flood of downbeat activity data, but it is still consistent with a gradual slowdown in business... 13th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A blockbuster decade for US equities seems set to end The real return from US equities in the coming decade could plausibly be less than a third of what it has been in the last ten years. Even so, that would probably still be more than the real return... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) With headline CPI inflation edging down to a two-and-a-half-year low of 1.5% in February, from 1.6%, and core inflation dropping to a four-month low of 2.1%, from 2.2%, the Fed would appear to be... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sharp divergence in new and existing home sales A fall in existing home sales in January, to a three year low, suggests that the housing market slowdown that began in 2018 continued into 2019. Indeed, even after a decline in mortgage interest rates... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The 1.1% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in January provides some reassurance that consumer spending isn’t falling off a cliff. But with sales now estimated to have plunged by an even... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly All the signs point to weaker demand After a relatively quiet week, the prices of most commodities took a tumble on Friday afternoon following the release of weak US February employment data. A rise of just 20,000 in non-farm payrolls... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Some positives beneath the gloomy headlines Attention on Friday was inevitably captured by the terrible February payrolls number but, looking back at developments this week, there was also a surprising number of positives. 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The good news that single-family starts saw their largest month-on-month gain for 40-years was tempered to some extent by a drop in building permits to an 18-month low, which implies that surge will... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The slump in payroll employment growth in February reinforces the message from the incoming activity data that economic growth is slowing below its 2% potential pace in the first quarter. That makes... 8th March 2019 · 1 min read
