US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further decline in core CPI inflation to a 13-month low of 2.0% in March underlines that there is little chance of inflation breaking out above the Fed’s target any time soon. We continue to... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys add to evidence of labour market slowdown The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that investment growth is set to slow and provide further evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Did homeowners really surge in 2018? According to the Homeownership and Vacancies survey, homeowners surged to a record high in 2018. If true, that would throw doubt on the widely held view that the housing market slowed last year. But... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Could the Fed’s interest rate projections be a mistake? The Fed began publishing interest rate projections submitted by FOMC participants as far back as 2012, but in the past seven years only one maverick official has ever forecast a cut in interest rates... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Maybe the good news is priced in? All the signs are that US-China trade talks are progressing well. On Friday, there were even media reports that the two sides had agreed timelines for implementing a deal. Given the good news on trade... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic slowdown set to continue The data releases this week strengthen our belief that the apparent weakness of GDP growth in the first quarter won’t just be a temporary blip. We expect a continued economic slowdown to convince the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 196,000 gain in non-farm payrolls March will be greeted with a sigh of relief after the disappointing 33,000 increase in February, but employment growth is nevertheless on a downward trend – with... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Economic slowdown to weigh on housing market Mortgage interest rates have dropped sharply since the end of last year, and the 30-year fixed rate is set to fall to 4.2% by the end of 2019. But that won’t spur a significant rise in housing market... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Faltering earnings likely to take a toll on the S&P 500 Our downbeat view of the US economy is at odds with analysts’ upbeat assessment of S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS). This is a key reason why we forecast that the index will drop back sharply later... 4th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Jumps in net imports and US production meant that US crude stocks showed a stellar build this week. However, we expect that stocks will fall in the months ahead as refineries come back online. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Slowdown will force Fed to reverse course We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.9% to 2.0% this year and only 1.4% in 2020. That weakness should convince the Fed to reverse course and cut interest rates by a cumulative 75bp, with the first... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) The drop in mortgage interest rates to a 15-month low at the end of March helped spur a strong rise in demand for both home purchase and refinance mortgages. However, as was the case in January, we... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m decline in February’s durable goods orders was principally due to a 31.1% m/m drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. Nevertheless, even putting that... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.3 in March, from 54.2, offers some reassurance that the US factory sector isn’t following its European counterpart off a cliff, although the... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The decline in underlying retail sales in February was offset by upward revisions to previous months, but real consumption growth still appears to have slowed sharply in the first quarter. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Given the volatility of the data, we wouldn’t read too much into the rise in new home sales to a one-year high in February. Nevertheless, given healthy levels of inventory and evidence that builders... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
