US Fed Watch Next move still likely to be a cut The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting. Chair Jerome Powell may acknowledge in his post-meeting press conference that downside risks to the outlook are fading. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) New home sales continued their strong start to the year in March, with an increase in the number of cheaper homes sold helping lift them to a 17-month high. But with the economy slowing, that rate of... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Democratic primary hints at break from past policies It is still too early to tell who will end up securing the Democratic nomination for the presidential election in 2020, but there is a good chance that the successful candidate will come from the... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headline GDP masks underlying weakness This week’s data releases helped to confirm that first-quarter GDP growth was much better than we originally feared, but the underlying strength of the domestic economy is a concern. As it stands now... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in March was not enough to prevent real consumption growth from slowing sharply in the first quarter, although it does at least provide a decent base... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Low level of jobless claims too good to be true We are sceptical that the decline in initial jobless claims to a 50-year low is providing a reliable guide to current labour market conditions. In recent years, a number of states have made it more... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) After falling sharply in January, the trade deficit declined a little further in February thanks to a jump in civilian aircraft exports and a subdued gain in imports. Neither of those are particularly... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories to weigh on GDP growth later this year A surge in business inventories appears to have boosted first-quarter GDP, but the now elevated inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that inventories will be a drag over the remainder of this year, which... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in March completed a weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualised, as the US factory sector succumbed to the global... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Fall in mortgage rates fails to boost buying sentiment Even as mortgage interest rates have fallen to 15-month lows, the share of Americans saying now is a good time to buy a home has stayed close to 10-year lows. While some rise in buying sentiment over... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus What would convince the Fed to cut rates? The economy is still in stronger shape than it usually was when the Fed started cutting interest rates in the past. Based on the Fed’s previous behaviour, however, the economic slowdown that we expect... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors still seem too upbeat about earnings growth As earnings season kicks off today in the US, we think that investors remain too optimistic about the global outlook for earnings per share (EPS) growth, given the prospects for the world economy... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weaker core inflation reinforcing Fed’s dovishness The March consumer and producer price inflation data released this week highlighted that underlying inflationary pressures continue to fade. That hasn’t gone unnoticed at the Fed, with the March FOMC... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Lower rates won’t prevent economic slowdown The sustained drop in Treasury yields since early November is one reason why we have upgraded our economic forecasts for 2020, but we do not think that will be enough to prevent economic growth... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The decline in net imports was one reason why US crude stocks surged again this week. However, we don’t think that this trend will continue as we expect the maintenance season for refineries to end... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in mortgage demand will not be sustained A drop in interest rates gave the mortgage market a shot in the arm in March, with applications for home purchase rising to close to a nine-year high. But we doubt that housing market activity is set... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
