US Economics Weekly Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher... 14th June 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may not push JGB ones down further Although falling Treasury yields may continue to exert some downward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, we don’t think that will drive them much lower by the end of the year. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (May) With the May producer price data also coming in weaker than expected, we now estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by only 0.11% m/m last month, which would take the annual core PCE inflation... 13th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed projects one cut this year, but notes inflation progress The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Policy Announcement (June 11-12) The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will... 12th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (May) Core CPI increased by a more modest 0.2%m/m in May and, although we still need to see the PPI data tomorrow, it looks like core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased by significantly... 12th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Property values on course to fall by more than 25% The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from... 11th June 2024 · 21 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: The future of global macro and markets leadership - Will the US be overtaken? We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 1 min read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 3 - Can the US stock market keep outshining the rest? US economic dominance has not always translated into stock market outperformance. Since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), however, US equities have largely outperformed those in the rest of the world... 10th June 2024 · 25 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 2 - Will the US retain its economic lead and who might challenge it? The US’s economic leadership is partly related to its sheer size, but its population also works more than other countries and it fares better on productivity. While the US economy faces various... 10th June 2024 · 39 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Chapter 1 - How has the US outperformed? For all its flaws, the US has long been a world-leading economy in a number of important respects. It has been an economic leader as the largest economy in the world since the late 1870s. While GDP... 10th June 2024 · 12 mins read
CE Spotlight Spotlight: Executive Summary: The future of global macro and markets leadership We expect the US to remain the world’s pre-eminent global economy for the foreseeable future. Not only will its own economic performance remain comparatively strong – not least as the advent of AI... 10th June 2024 · 6 mins read
