US Economics Weekly Data leave Trump with weaker hand in trade talks The strength of the US economy in the first quarter was presumably one of the factors that emboldened President Donald Trump to take a tougher line with China in the trade dispute. But the incoming... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Apr.) The weakness of the April durable goods data, which showed underlying orders unchanged following a downwardly-revised plunge in March, provides further evidence that economic growth is slowing sharply... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Relentless outperformance of US equities likely to end The far superior performance of equities in the US than in the rest of the developed world since the global financial crisis (GFC) can be mostly attributed to healthier growth in corporate earnings... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Apr.) The drop in new home sales in April came from an upwardly revised March figure, and sales were up 7% over the year. A healthier level of inventory is helping the new home market outperform the... 23rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks rose again this week partly due to a release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR), which caused prices to drop sharply today. Despite this, we still think that crude... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Weakness of core inflation to prove persistent Fed officials have dismissed the recent weakness of core inflation, which has fallen to only 1.6% on the PCE measure, as being driven by transitory factors. Methodology changes resulted in a sharp... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What’s happening to home improvement spending? With inventory levels close to record lows, we suspect many frustrated home movers are instead choosing to improve their current home. We therefore place more faith in the BEA estimate of home... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Recent drags on car sales are set to unwind Car sales in the world’s largest markets have slumped since mid-2018. In this Metals Watch we explain our forecast for sales to begin recovering later this year. 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Next round of tariffs to have a more significant impact The latest escalation in trade tensions could become a bigger drag on the US economy than previous rounds of tariffs. A 25% tariff on all imports from China would be equivalent to a tax worth 0.6% of... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Apr.) Existing home sales dropped back for the second consecutive month in April. A lack of inventory has constrained sales even as lower mortgage interest rates have given a boost to housing demand. With... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Tariffs alone won’t change the Fed’s plans President Donald Trump clearly isn’t the only one hoping that the Fed will ride to the rescue amid the escalating trade dispute with China, with the markets now convinced that interest rates will be... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) Housing starts maintained their recent revival during April, while building permits also rose. Strong housebuilder confidence and solid underlying demand are expected to support starts over the next... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update China’s tariff is a major setback for US LNG China’s decision to raise its tariff on US LNG imports from 10% to 25% from 1st June effectively rules the US out of the world’s second-largest, and fastest-growing, market. It will also weigh on spot... 16th May 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks returned to their recent run of unseasonal builds last week. This was despite the refinery utilisation rate, net imports and production all implying a drawdown. That said, there is... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Apr.) The weaker tone of April’s activity data, with control group retail sales unchanged and manufacturing output falling sharply, supports our view that GDP growth is set to slow in the second quarter. 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update S&P 500’s post-GFC surge is on borrowed time Although the rebound in US equities since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) contrasts starkly with their protracted slump after the Great Crash, it has been largely justified by a rebound in corporate... 15th May 2019 · 1 min read
