US Employment Report Preview Labour market conditions beginning to sour Our model points to a renewed slowdown in payroll employment growth in July to just 145,000, from 224,000. As the economy slows further, we expect a more marked downturn in employment growth later... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Jun.) The surge in durable goods orders in June suggests that business equipment investment is holding up a bit better than we anticipated. But with the incoming global data still deteriorating and domestic... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New home sales rose by a solid 7.0% m/m in June, making up some of the ground they lost over April and May. A healthy new home inventory will continue to support sales, but the dip in mortgage... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Insurance cut won’t prevent further slowdown The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25bp next week rather than the 50bp that some have been calling for. Fed officials will hope that move provides enough “insurance” against the downside risks... 24th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / Existing Home Sales (May/Jun.) A steady fall in mortgage interest rates has not given a boost to existing home sales, which dropped back in June and have now recorded year-on-year declines for the past 16-months. A slowing economy... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Budget deal removes uncertainty, but adds to debt risk The budget deal agreed by the Trump administration and Congress removes the risk of a damaging debt ceiling crisis in September and prevents a contraction in discretionary spending from October... 23rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumers to the rescue? We expect to learn next week that second-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.6% annualised, from 3.1% in the first, which should reinforce expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the FOMC... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Does the Fed actually need to cut rates? Despite the run of stronger activity data in recent weeks, the deterioration in the survey evidence, lingering uncertainty over trade policy and the prospect of a prolonged period of below-target... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Cut in premium won’t halt drop in FHA market share bill which recently passed the House to cut the FHA upfront mortgage premium by 25 bps for first-time buyers who take a financial management course is too small to halt the downward trend in the FHA... 18th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy holding up on eve of rate cut The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, despite some better news on the real economy. Payroll employment growth was much stronger than expected in June... 17th July 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis brewing Reaching a bipartisan deal to raise the debt ceiling by early September should be a relatively straightforward exercise, but the increasingly confrontational relationship between President Donald... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) The volatile multifamily sector was responsible for the overall decline in both housing starts and building permits in June. Single-family starts and permits both edged out a small gain and, with new... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Industrial production was unchanged in June, as a weather-related drop in utilities output offset a 0.4% m/m rise in manufacturing output. But with global demand still weak, we doubt the latter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (June) The 0.7% m/m surge in underlying retail sales in June, along with upward revisions to previous months’ gains, suggests that real consumption growth accelerated to 4.0% annualised in the second quarter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell confirms cut; debt ceiling crisis looms Chair Jerome Powell signalled earlier this week that the Fed still intended to push ahead with a July rate cut, despite the post-G20 trade truce, the resilience of the labour market and signs of a... 12th July 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The stronger 0.3% m/m gain in core consumer prices in June won’t prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates later this month and, in any case, we doubt that strength will be sustained. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
