Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report While most of last week’s draw in US commercial crude stocks was down to a drop in net imports, the latest figures showed another strong week for both inputs to refineries and gasoline demand. But... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jul.) Existing home sales managed their first year-on-year rise for 17-months in July, but that is not the start of a sustained upward trend. Home purchase mortgage demand has not received much of a boost... 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy shrugging off recession fears The further inversion of the yield curve – with the 10-2 year spread briefly inverting last week – has heightened fears that a recession is coming soon, but the real economy shows few signs of any... 19th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Update House prices to benefit from lower mortgage rates With mortgage rates set to drop to 3.8% over the next couple of weeks, and inventory tight, we have edged up our house price forecast and now expect a rise of 3% this year. But a slowing economy and... 19th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Consumer strength presents a dilemma for the Fed The Trump administration’s surprise announcement this week that it intended to delay the introduction of the 10% tariff on more than $150bn of finished consumer goods may have saved the Holidays, but... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts and building permits both increased in July, as lower interest rates, a tight existing home market and the decline in the backlog of previously authorised homes have encouraged... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The soft July industrial production data show that the manufacturing recession continued into the third quarter. But the latest surveys provide some reason for optimism and, as the retail sales data... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (July) With the rest of the world sliding into the abyss, the July retail sales figures show a resurgent US consumer riding to the rescue once again. Even though the surge in retail sales in July was... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Slowdown still more likely outcome than recession We still anticipate a modest economic downturn rather than a recession, but the spreading weakness in other parts of the global economy has increased the danger of an outright economic contraction in... 14th August 2019 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in sentiment good news for starts, not sales The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index has hit a record high, but the detail shows the share of households who see now as a good time to buy is still relatively low. High house prices and a lack... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The stronger than expected 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July, which followed a similar-sized gain in June, suggests that underlying inflationary pressures may not be as subdued as is... 13th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed capitulating to the markets With economic growth slowing rather than collapsing and both wage and price inflation rebounding in recent months, further interest rate cuts are hard to justify on purely economic terms. Admittedly... 9th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Mortgage borrowers well placed to weather slowdown The upcoming economic slowdown brings with it the risk of a rise in mortgage delinquencies. However, tighter mortgage lending standards since the financial crisis means borrowers today are more... 8th August 2019 · 13 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Despite a steady decline in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications for home purchase had dropped to a five-month low by the end of July. The recent drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means... 7th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Lack of inventory keeps home sales grounded The fall in mortgage interest rates gave mortgage applications for home purchase a boost earlier this year, but a lack of inventory meant that did not translate into home sales. (See Chart 1.) Total... 6th August 2019 · 9 mins read
US Economics Update Currency manipulator label points to further escalation The Trump administration’s move to label China a currency manipulator may have few practical implications, but it underscores the speed at which tensions are now escalating. The key risk is that the... 6th August 2019 · 3 mins read
