US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 130,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in August was flattered by the hiring of 25,000 temporary workers to help prepare for next year’s census. More generally, there has been a clear... 6th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields likely to rebound as Fed disappoints Although we are revising down our once-bullish forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield, we think that it has fallen too far and will rebound to 1.75% by the end of 2019 and rise significantly next... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Focus Recession trackers: A guide to our new models The inversion of the yield curve and the deterioration in survey-based indicators have raised fears that the US is headed for a recession, but the hard economic data and other financial indicators... 5th September 2019 · 21 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The small narrowing in the trade deficit in July was driven by a rise in exports and leaves net trade on track to be nothing worse than a small drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. But that drag... 4th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) August’s rebound in overall mortgage applications was driven by buoyant refinancing activity, while home purchase applications fell. A further drop in the 10-year Treasury yield means that mortgage... 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.1 in August, from 51.2, left the index at its lowest level since January 2016 and points to another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s meeting later this month. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Still little sign of trade war drag The trade dispute with China may be escalating at a rapid pace but, despite the concerns of Fed officials, there is still little evidence that this is having a significant impact on the economy. 30th August 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Update Tighter credit conditions another brake on home sales Concerns around the economic outlook have encouraged banks to tighten mortgage lending standards, offsetting some of the impact of lower interest rates on home sales. Surveys suggest that tightening... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Surveys suggest payrolls will disappoint We estimate that employment growth slowed further in August, with non-farm payrolls rising by a below-consensus 110,000. 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The huge weekly drawdown in US crude stocks clearly soothed some of the near-term fears surrounding softer demand, as evidenced by today’s gain in prices. But our forecast for a slowdown in the US... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jun.) Both the FHFA and Case-Shiller reported a further slowdown in annual house price growth in June. But with mortgage interest rates falling to near three-year lows and inventory tight, we doubt growth... 27th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed still taking its cue from the bond market Fed officials signalled this week that they are content for now to take their cue from the bond market, with Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech giving a strong hint that a September rate cut is... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update China focuses its fire in retaliation The tariffs announced today by China’s government are a departure from previous rounds of retaliation: they focus almost entirely on further raising tariffs on products that have already been targeted... 23rd August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The substantial drop in new home sales in July is not as bad it looks, as a large upward revision to the previous month’s estimate meant that decline came from a 12-year high. A slowing economy rules... 23rd August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update How will rents perform as the economy slows? Rental growth typically falls back during economic slowdowns, but we think rents will hold up relatively well over the next couple of years. With the rental vacancy rate close to record lows the... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Record-high dollar not a threat to the economy Despite President Donald Trump’s complaints that the strong dollar is holding back the economy, the dollar’s rate of appreciation matters more than its level and it has risen by only 3% in trade... 22nd August 2019 · 3 mins read
