US Commercial Property Update Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2024) The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be... 25th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (May 2024) Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell... 21st June 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook deteriorates further This week the CBO released new projections showing that the Federal deficit is expected to be $1.9trn, or 6.7% of GDP, in the current 2024 fiscal year that ends this September. That projection is more... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Office Metros Outlook Southern metros set to outperform The office sector faces another two years of value falls, led down by Seattle and San Francisco, where cumulative declines will be around 25%-30%. But our latest forecasts highlight the brighter spots... 20th June 2024 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Housing Starts (May 2024) The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year. 20th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily How long can the US stock market stand on one leg? The US stock market has hit another fresh all-time high, with its ascent is an increasingly lonely one driven by a handful of its constituents. That pattern may be difficult to sustain indefinitely... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our... 18th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (May 2024) The strong rebound in manufacturing output in May was better than we expected but, given the softness of the earlier retail sales release, it does not change the big picture that second-quarter GDP... 18th June 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Retail Sales (May) The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%. 18th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
