Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose last week largely owing to a decline in refinery inputs. Relatively high stocks will continue to reassure the market that there are ample supplies to cover outrages in Saudi... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Californian rent controls may boost new developments Rent controls usually discourage new rental developments. But the Californian bill that is set to be signed into law may in fact boost the construction of new units. New rental buildings are exempt... 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Core inflation rebound complicates the Fed’s task The Fed will look through any rise in headline inflation resulting from the recent jump in crude oil prices, but the acceleration in core CPI inflation, to an 11-year high in August, is harder to... 18th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) Even ignoring the surge in volatile multifamily starts, August was a good month for homebuilding. Single-family starts and permits both saw decent gains, as low mortgage interest rates, a solid labour... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Aug.) The stronger-than-expected 0.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in August, which was driven by manufacturing, suggests that the drag on US producers from weaker global demand may be starting to... 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Why have mortgage spreads widened? The sharp rise in the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate primarily reflects the speed at which yields dropped back. But tighter credit conditions also look to be... 13th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to cut despite rising inflation and trade optimism The Fed is almost certain to cut its policy rate by another 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting to between 1.75% and 2.00%. But rising core inflation, the still-solid incoming activity data and the... 13th September 2019 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m increase in retail sales in August, which was well above the consensus expectation at 0.2% m/m, was helped by a suspicious looking 1.8% m/m increase in motor vehicle sales. Otherwise... 13th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The further rise in core CPI inflation to an 11-year high of 2.4% in August won’t stop the Fed from cutting interest rates again next week, but it does provide further reason to believe that market... 12th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Trump may not like negative rates in practice President Donald Trump’s call for the Fed to slash interest rates to zero or “less”, so that the Treasury can lock-in low borrowing costs for the very long term, sounds appealing in a sustained low... 11th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Another sharp fall in US stocks suggests crude demand is holding up well, despite some signs of deterioration in economic activity data. However, we suspect that crude stocks will soon start to build... 11th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Demand unresponsive to lower mortgage rates The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to its lowest level since late 2016, but that has not given much of a boost to home demand. Indeed, mortgage applications for home purchase dropped back over July... 11th September 2019 · 9 mins read
US Fed Watch Mid-cycle adjustment continues The Fed looks set for another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting. The data haven’t yet deteriorated nearly enough to justify a larger 50bp move, although we do expect a further gradual slowdown... 11th September 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update NFIB survey points to worrying drop-off in investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a drop in business equipment investment over the rest of the year and provide more evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 10th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Boost from lower rates starting to feed through The sharp fall in market interest rates over the past 12 months is starting to support the economy, with activity growth in rate-sensitive sectors like durables consumption and housing rebounding in... 9th September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets over-react to news of new trade talks In a week of mixed economic data releases, it was the news that the US and China would resume trade talks next month that proved to be the biggest development – pushing the S&P 500 back toward a... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
