US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The first rise in mortgage rates since November last year dampened refinancing demand in September, but applications for home purchase saw a small gain. However that rise merely took home purchase... 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a decade low of 47.8 in September, from 49.1, will reignite fears that the US economy is headed for a recession. Our guess is that this deterioration is at... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown to continue regardless of political drama The impeachment inquiry launched by the House Democrats against President Donald Trump will dominate the headlines over the coming months. It is unlikely to have any major impact on markets or the... 27th September 2019 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Difficult to see US earnings living up to expectations Investors’ continued optimism about corporate earnings in the US is hard to square with our view that economic growth there and in the rest of the world will remain weak. That is the key reason why we... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending (Aug.) The modest rise in personal spending in August suggests that third-quarter consumption growth was weaker than we had previously anticipated, while the durable goods data indicate that business... 27th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Pending home sales taking longer to close A surge in demand for refinancing has stretched lenders’ capacity, lengthening the time it takes to close a mortgage. That has disrupted the usual relationship between pending and existing home sales... 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economic Outlook Trade war and election add to uncertainty We expect GDP growth to slow from 2.3% this year to 1.4% in 2020, before a more favourable post-election policy mix generates a rebound to 2.0% in 2021. Under those circumstances, we anticipate one... 26th September 2019 · 22 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown to continue We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by a muted 125,000 in September, with the unemployment rate steady at 3.7%. 26th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) The volatility in new home sales continued into August, with a rise of 7.7% m/m not quite reversing the fall recorded in July. Flat demand for home purchase mortgages over the past couple of weeks... 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Jul.) The gradual slowdown in house price growth seen over the past year came to a halt in July. Case-Shiller reported annual growth was unchanged at 3.2%, and the FHFA recorded a slight acceleration to 5.0... 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Recession Watch (Sep.) Our composite model suggests that the risk of a recession in 12-months’ time has fallen slightly to 17.9%, from above 20% a few weeks ago, as the rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield has reduced the... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Services exports are collateral damage in trade war With attention focused on the impact of tariffs on goods trade, the recent decline in services exports has gone largely unnoticed. But that has already knocked a few tenths off GDP growth and, with... 23rd September 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed needs to fix its plumbing problem The Fed voted to cut its key policy rate by another 25bp earlier this week, but it is deeply split over what to do next. Close to one-third of the FOMC is projecting another rate cut before year-end... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Energy Update The US to become a net oil exporter in 2021 US production of light crude oil will continue to grow in the coming years, and we expect that this will lead to the US becoming a net exporter of crude oil by 2021. 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales increased for the second consecutive month in August, to reach an 18-month high. But a number of factors argue against a sustained rise in activity. Demand for home purchase... 19th September 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Fed split deepens The Fed voted to cut its key policy interest rate by an additional 25bp today, to between 1.75% and 2.00%, but the FOMC is more split than ever over what to do next. 18th September 2019 · 3 mins read
