US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) Strong new home sales have helped boost homebuilder confidence to a 20-month high, and single-family building permits and starts both recorded a small rise in September. The lack of existing home... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Headwinds for NYC home buyers, but not for rents Over the past couple of years buyers of high-end homes in New York City have been hit by higher taxes, and can no longer hide their identity. That has cut home buyer demand and house prices, and may... 16th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Fed’s balance sheet heading back above $4trn The Fed’s move to begin purchasing $60bn of Treasury bills per month will eventually push the size of its balance sheet back up to $4trn over the coming year, not far below its $4.2trn peak. However... 16th October 2019 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The drop back in retail sales in September was driven partly by a price-related drop in gasoline sales, but the fact that underlying control group retail sales were unchanged provides another clear... 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Weak earnings might spark a sharp fall in US equities The corporate earnings season starting this week in the US could provide the trigger for the drop in the S&P 500 that we forecast to happen this year. Indeed, we think that earnings will disappoint... 15th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Slowing economy weighs on buyer sentiment A slowing economy has increased concerns around job security, which has weighed on mortgage applications for home purchase even as mortgage interest rates have stayed close to three-year lows. Coupled... 11th October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trade “mini deal” won’t prevent further slowdown Trade talks with China look set to conclude today with a “mini deal”, reducing the immediate risks of a further rise in tariffs. But existing tariffs will remain in place, including the September... 11th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The muted gain in core consumer prices in September illustrates that, even after the introduction of additional tariffs on Chinese imports, inflationary pressures are still well contained. In that... 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose again last week and we suspect that they will increase further owing to ongoing refinery maintenance and the prospect of lower product demand as the US economy slows. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Rise in appraisal threshold a positive, but a small one A hike in the threshold at which mortgages require a home appraisal, from $250,000 to $400,000, is long overdue and has the potential to reduce closing times, raise closing rates and boost house... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update GM strike will deepen the manufacturing downturn The strike at General Motors, together with continued problems at Boeing, means that the incoming manufacturing data over the next month or two will go from bad to terrible. That is another reason to... 9th October 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What to make of the diverging manufacturing surveys Other surveys suggest that the ISM manufacturing index is over-playing the extent of the factory-sector slowdown. But the wider evidence suggests the outlook for manufacturers is still pretty poor. 7th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Weaker data put the Fed on the spot again The slump in the ISM manufacturing index to a decade-low in September together with the fall in the non-manufacturing index to a three-year low triggered renewed fears that the US economy is headed... 4th October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Tighter credit conditions rule out sales recovery Mortgage interest rates recently dropped to three-year lows, but mortgage applications for home purchase are more-or-less unchanged from where they were at the start of the year. A slowing economy... 4th October 2019 · 16 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) & International Trade (Aug.) The 136,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September illustrates that while growth in employment (and broader activity) has slowed, it is not collapsing. Otherwise, the employment report was... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks increased last week as inputs to refineries fell. We expect crude stocks to continue to rise in the coming months as a weaker US economy leads to softer growth in gasoline demand. 2nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
