US Economics Update Recession Watch (Oct.) With the yield curve un-inverting, our composite model indicates that the probability of a recession in 12 months’ time has fallen to 11.7%, from a recent peak of more than 20%. Nevertheless, we... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly PMIs suggest economy may be stabilising The Fed will probably cut interest rates for third consecutive time at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting Wednesday. That will come shortly after GDP figures for the third quarter are... 25th October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales more-or-less held their ground in September, leaving them close to 12-year highs. Healthy levels of inventory will help sales make further progress over the next year or so but, given... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview GM strike to hit payrolls hard We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by just 25,000 in October, mainly reflecting disruption caused by the strike at GM. Even excluding that temporary hit, however, the underlying pace of... 24th October 2019 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The 1.1% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was only partly due to the GM strike, with an unexpected decline in commercial aircraft orders and weakness in underlying orders also... 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update E-Z equities will fall by less than US equities in our view Equities in the euro-zone have outperformed those in the US since early October. While we expect this trend to continue, we think that both will fall in the rest of this year, as global growth slows... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks fell last week on the back of strong demand for both distillates and gasoline. But with stocks still comfortably above the five-year average, and the US economy set to slow further... 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices (Aug.) Annual house price growth on the FHFA measure resumed its downward trend in August, slowing to a five-year low of 4.6%. Lower mortgage interest rates should help price growth stabilise over the... 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to cut rates again amid economic slowdown With the markets still fully pricing in another 25bp rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting and officials doing nothing to push back against those expectations, there is little point trying to deny that... 23rd October 2019 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could house price growth accelerate? Some leading indicators of house price growth, such as the size of mortgage approvals and months’ supply of new homes on the market, are pointing to an acceleration in growth to around 5% y/y by the... 22nd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update United States This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for the US economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 22nd October 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Following two months of gains, existing home sales dropped back in September. Given mortgage applications for home purchase have been more-or-less flat over the past few months, that decline in... 22nd October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Recession fears ease, but GDP growth still slowing The news of an apparent trade “deal” between the US and China has pushed back the threat of further tariffs and helped to un-invert the yield curve, but economic growth still appears to be slowing... 21st October 2019 · 8 mins read
US Economics Weekly Are consumers finally flagging? For a short time earlier this year, it appeared that US households would ride to the rescue of the entire global economy, but the more recent incoming data suggest that consumer spending growth is... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks surged last week in part because of a decline in refinery throughput. We expect further builds in stocks over the next few months as the US economy slows, which will curb gasoline... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 0.4% m/m decline in industrial production in September was principally due to the GM strike, which dragged down autos production, and the unseasonably warm weather, which depressed utilities... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
